Duke vs Connecticut Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:54 AM

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Connecticut head coach Jim Mora watches before an NCAA college football game against Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Duke is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Connecticut
Duke vs. Connecticut Total (Over/Under): 65.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

Duke (5-3) visit Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field to take on Connecticut (6-3) on Nov. 8 in East Hartford, CT. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Duke is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Duke vs. Connecticut Over/Under is 65.5 total points.

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Duke vs. Connecticut Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Duke	-9.5 -110	65.5 -105	-350
Connecticut	+9.5 -110	65.5 -115	280

Duke vs Connecticut Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 71.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Connecticut, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Duke vs Connecticut Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UConn will cover the spread with 51.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Duke Best Bets Today

Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Duke has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Duke has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 42% ROI)
Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Duke have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Connecticut Best Bets Today

UConn has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Connecticut have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Connecticut has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
UConn has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 46% ROI)
Connecticut have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Duke is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.35 Units / -4% ROI).

Duke is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 9.28% ROI
Duke is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 42.94% ROI
Duke is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.55 Units / -52% ROI

Connecticut Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Connecticut iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Connecticut is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Connecticut is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Connecticut is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Connecticut

Duke RBs have averaged 9.5 Yards per Carry (409 yards/43 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

Duke has 457 receptions in 20 games (22.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS skill players. UConn’s defense has allowed 20.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Duke’s TEs has 20 receptions in 7 games (just 2.9 per game) this season — 5th-worst among ACC TEs. UConn’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Duke have thrown 8.5 Passing TDs per Interception (17 passing TDs/2 interceptions) this season– 6th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.2

Duke RBs have averaged 8.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (467 yards / 53 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Connecticut: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

UConn tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 64 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UConn has tackled opponents for a loss on 26 of 115 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UConn has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 26 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

UConn tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 64 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UConn forced 4 fumbles on 425 carries (106.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

Matchup Notes for Duke vs. Connecticut