Duke vs California Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 02, 2025, 3:04 PM

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California head coach Justin Wilcox stands on the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Stanford in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

Duke is a -3 point favorite vs. California
Duke vs. California Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

Duke (3-2) visit California Memorial Stadium to take on California (4-1) on Oct. 4 in Berkeley, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.

Duke is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Duke vs. California Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Duke vs. California Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Duke	-3 -105	55.5 -110	-145
California	+3 -115	55.5 -110	118

Duke vs California Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 86.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and California, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Duke vs California Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 62.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Duke Best Bets Today

Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.64 Units / 27% ROI)
Duke has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Duke has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 47% ROI)
Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)

California Best Bets Today

California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.24 Units / 15% ROI)
California has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 14 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
California has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.20 Units / 7% ROI)
California has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Duke is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Duke is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Duke is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Duke is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

California Against the Spread (ATS) Record

California iss 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

California is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -12.64% ROI
California is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
California is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Duke: Keys to the Game vs. California

Duke has allowed 12.9 Yards per Attempt (233 yards/18 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.2

Duke has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 9 of their 159 carries (6%) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3%

Duke opponents averaged 37.8 Passing Attempts per TD (416 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Duke tackled opponents for a loss on 103 of 519 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) last season– 18th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Duke has allowed 12 rushing TDs this season– most among Power Conference Teams

California: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

Duke have thrown for 6 TDs in the 3rd quarter this season– most among FBS Offenses

Duke RBs have averaged 10.0 Yards per Carry (209 yards/21 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Duke has gained 1,327 yards on 101 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-35th-best among FBS skill players. California’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.

Duke TEs have averaged 23.6 yards per reception (118 yards/5 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.8

Duke’s WRs has gained 1,024 yards on 63 receptions (16.3 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.

Matchup Notes for Duke vs. California