- Connecticut is a -4 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
- Connecticut vs. Buffalo Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Connecticut (2-2) visit UB Stadium to take on Buffalo (2-2) on Sep. 27 in Buffalo, NY. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Connecticut is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Connecticut vs. Buffalo Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Connecticut vs. Buffalo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Connecticut | -4 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -180 |
| Buffalo | +4 -110 | 49.5 -110 | 145 |
Connecticut vs Buffalo Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UConn will win this game with 56.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Connecticut and Buffalo U, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Connecticut vs Buffalo Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UConn will cover the spread with 54.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Connecticut Best Bets Today
- UConn has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+2.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- UConn has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- UConn has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- UConn has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- UConn have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Buffalo Best Bets Today
- Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Connecticut Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Connecticut is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Connecticut is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Connecticut is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Connecticut is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Buffalo U iss 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Buffalo is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -8.37% ROI
- Buffalo is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Buffalo is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Connecticut: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo
UConn RBs have averaged 14.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (293 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.3
UConn’s RBs has rushed for 3,247 yards on 516 carries (6.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
UConn’s WRs has averaged 23.2 targets per game since the 2024 season — 34th-highest among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs have 11 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Connecticut
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS teams. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo has 258 receptions in 17 games (just 15.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS skill players. UConn’s defense has allowed 21.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo have caught just 33 of 80 passes (41% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 60%
Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
Matchup Notes for Connecticut vs. Buffalo
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS teams. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo has 258 receptions in 17 games (just 15.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS skill players. UConn’s defense has allowed 21.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo have caught just 33 of 80 passes (41% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 60%
Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
UConn RBs have averaged 14.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (293 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.3
UConn’s RBs has rushed for 3,247 yards on 516 carries (6.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
UConn’s WRs has averaged 23.2 targets per game since the 2024 season — 34th-highest among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs have 11 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Connecticut Offensive Stats & Trends
UConn RBs have averaged 14.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (293 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.3
UConn’s RBs has rushed for 3,247 yards on 516 carries (6.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
UConn’s WRs has averaged 23.2 targets per game since the 2024 season — 34th-highest among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs have 11 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS teams. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo has 258 receptions in 17 games (just 15.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS skill players. UConn’s defense has allowed 21.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo have caught just 33 of 80 passes (41% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 60%
Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
Connecticut Defensive Stats & Trends
UConn RBs have averaged 14.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (293 yards / 21 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.3
UConn’s RBs has rushed for 3,247 yards on 516 carries (6.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
UConn’s WRs has averaged 23.2 targets per game since the 2024 season — 34th-highest among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn WRs have 11 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS offenses. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 711 passing yards in 4 games (just 177.8 YPG) this season — 25th-worst among FBS teams. UConn’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo has 258 receptions in 17 games (just 15.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS skill players. UConn’s defense has allowed 21.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo have caught just 33 of 80 passes (41% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 60%
Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
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