Colorado vs. Houston: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

Friday is an excellent night for Big 12 football. Before Arizona and Kansas State kick off late, college football fans will be treated to a 7:30 p.m. clash of offense vs defense.

Colorado is hoping it’s found the true successor to Shedeur Sanders at quarterback. As for Houston, its defense is looking like a premier unit in the conference.

Colorado vs. Houston Odds

• Point Spread: Houston -5.5
• Moneyline: Houston -220  |  Colorado +180
• Over/Under: 45.5

Colorado vs. Houston Preview

The big news of the week is that Coach Prime is rolling with former third-string quarterback Ryan Staub as his starter at Houston. 

That’s a major departure from the offseason, when either Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter or five-star freshman Julian Lewis were expected to carry the quarterback duties for Colorado after Shedeur Sanders’ departure.

Staub is more of a pure passer than the other two, so his presence deemphasizes the quarterback run game. But since Colorado’s offensive line hasn’t been able to run block much during the Sanders regime anyway, that might actually be a positive. 

Staub’s emergence brings a large sense of variance to this game. Houston will have limited tape to work off of when prepping defensively, and Staub’s effectiveness is mostly unknown. Bettors only have a few drives from the Delaware game to go off of. (He did look quite good there, which I wrote about at the beginning of this week in my Big 12 recap column.)

Because of the Staub variance, there’s a decent case to make that the best bet available here is the Colorado moneyline. I wouldn’t sneer at anyone who makes that play. 

Personally, I am a fan of what Willie Fritz is doing at Houston – particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where Houston ranks No. 2 nationally in net EPA/play and EPA/pass allowed. Its defensive success rate of 31% ranks 16th nationally. 

I don’t necessarily see a strong bet here for me, since I would prefer the Houston side of the game, and I have multiple Houston positions in the college football futures market. But philosophically, I’m aligned with the Houston side of the game, even if I can see the logic for a Colorado moneyline ticket. 

Colorado vs. Houston Prediction

I am predicting a Houston win and cover on Friday night.

While Staub could make Colorado a more interesting moneyline underdog target, the Houston defense is the unit I trust the most in this game. I’ll bank on that to get the best of Staub in his first start and look for other places to back Colorado in the near future. 

Colorado vs. Houston Prediction: Houston -4.5