College Football Playoff Predictions: Projecting the Playoff Field for 2025

A fresh season of college football is here, and let’s cut to the chase. That means our national discourse is ready to focus on the one thing that matters most in this world: College Football Playoff predictions.

I write plenty of college football odds analysis here on The Roar, and those pieces should help inform my predictions. You can check out my college football national championship odds market roundup as a good starting place.

But here, I’m doing a very simple and narrow thing. Below are my predictions on who I think will make the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, as of Aug. 25. I am electing not to predict a full cadre of 12 teams because, frankly, I just don’t believe in 12 teams right now. 

If you like any of these predictions – especially at cost – you can find College Football Playoff odds in the college football futures tab of the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Clemson

Clemson has actually become an odds-on favorite to win the ACC, so there’s nothing bold or interesting about this prediction. 

What is fascinating for me is Clemson’s potential to grab the No. 1 seed in the playoff field. After the Tigers’ Week 1 game against LSU, there are very few threatening games on the calendar. With a Heisman hopeful at quarterback and a very talented roster, this is Dabo Swinney’s best chance to return to true national contention in years.

Notre Dame

Again, it’s not all that brave to predict the national runner-up from the previous year will return to the 12-team postseason. But Notre Dame still has a great offensive line and a future NFL running back, which means the Irish will likely find themselves back in the CFP.

Georgia

Georgia has a mystery at quarterback with Gunner Stockton. If he’s good, they’ll be a deserving championship favorite. 

But even if he’s more on the forgettable side of things, Georgia will still contend at the top of the SEC. The schedule is very difficult: at Tennessee, Alabama, at Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, and Texas all on the docket. But Georgia’s coaching and defense will continue to earn the Dawgs big wins, making a playoff bet in the 12-team era a strong likelihood.  

Texas

Is the hype a little too much right now? Sure. Are we all getting a little ahead of ourselves with Arch Manning? Probably.

Nevertheless, Texas made the playoffs last year in the midst of an up-and-down season from Quinn Ewers, and I think Texas will be back there this season. A head-to-head win against rebuilding Ohio State in Week 1 would give the Longhorns a lot of latitude in their conference schedule.

Penn State

Ohio State remains the Big Ten favorite for now, but Penn State has clearly been one of the most popular winners of the offseason – at least as far as BetMGM players are concerned. The college football futures market share for the Nittany Lions has been substantial.

Updated College Football National Championship betting at @BetMGM

Highest Ticket% 🎟️
1. Texas 11.9%
2. Penn State 11.2%
3. Ohio State 8.9%

Highest Handle% 💰
1. Texas 20.4%
2. Penn State 13.7%
3. Alabama 8.3% pic.twitter.com/Jkh6A0yKur

— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) August 25, 2025

With another strong defense and another Heisman candidate at quarterback, I understand why this is a popular target. I don’t know if I’m willing to bet on a jump all the way to the national championship, but another playoff bid seems likely. 

Oregon

I’ve seen some fair skepticism of Oregon’s decision to roll with UCLA transfer Dante Moore at quarterback this year. But Dan Lanning and Will Stein have turned all their recent quarterbacks into stars, regardless of previous pedigree, so I’m reluctant to think that Oregon is suddenly going to play as a mere upper-tier Big Ten team.

The Ducks once again have the exact schedule they need to be considered for the postseason, with a winnable nonconference game against a P4 opponent (Oklahoma State). There’s only one game on the schedule where they probably won’t be favored, and that’s at Penn State. They should cruise to a 10-win season that puts them in the field. 

Arizona State

Arizona State is perceived by many as a 2024 flash in the pan, but I’m not sure that’s right. The Sun Devils bring back a ton, including still-improving quarterback Sam Leavitt and young stud head coach Kenny Dillingham. 

The Big 12 is a chaos machine, and ASU is an obvious regression candidate. But a veteran team like this can and should win 10 games and find itself in playoff position at the end of the year. For me, the biggest risk here is potential perception bias from the committee against the Big 12. 

Baylor 

Throughout the offseason, Baylor has quietly become a favorite bet to contend in a deep Big 12. And I have to admit I see it.

Sawyer Robertson is the best quarterback in this conference. Baylor’s defense is back and nasty under sixth-year coach Dave Aranda. The Bears get a home game against an SEC opponent (Auburn) in Week 1, plus home conference games against title aspirants Utah, ASU, and Kansas State. They dodge Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Baylor is arguably the best buy in the Big 12 this year, at least before Week 1. And even if the Bears don’t score the Big 12 automatic bid, they could have the resume to get in anyway at the end of the season. 

But again, that’s the kind of thing that assumes the CFP committee rewards the Big 12 for its impressive depth. It’s fair to be skeptical of that in a futures market like this.

Illinois

Illinois has been the trendy dark horse of the Big Ten this year, and I think the playoff odds are the best market to target them. 

As someone who believes Ohio State will struggle to make the playoff this year, I’m hunting for a Big Ten team to jump up into the power vacuum. Illinois makes sense and has something akin to Indiana’s 2024 schedule, meaning they could play their way into playoff contention simply because of the luck of an imbalance scheduling system.

Circle Oct. 11 on your calendar, when Illinois hosts Ohio State. College GameDay, anyone?

Memphis

I liked Memphis as the G5 playoff representative last year. The Tigers even got the head-to-head Florida State upset they needed to make things interesting.

Things went downhill quickly, though. Boise State had a monster first-round NFL running back, and the Seminoles had a total bomb of a season. When Memphis followed up its big FSU win with a loss at Navy, the Tigers’ playoff hopes were on life support.

But Memphis still won 11 games in Ryan Silverfield’s fifth season. The Tigers have a great schedule in 2025, including a winnable game against P4 opponent Arkansas, and home games against USF, Navy, and Tulane. All their road games are expected to finish in the bottom half of the AAC. 

Boise State has the name ID after last season, and my alma mater James Madison has gotten a ton of dark horse love in recent weeks. But I see Memphis as the most realistic G5 winner because of its staffing and roster continuity and its friendly schedule.

College Football Playoff Predictions: 2025 Preseason

• Clemson ()
• Notre Dame ()
• Georgia ()
• Texas ()
• Penn State ()
• Oregon ()
• Arizona State ()
• Baylor ()
• Illinois ()
• Memphis ()

College Football Playoff Odds 2025