Cincinnati vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 28, 2025, 10:30 AM

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A general view of the exterior of Amon G. Carter Stadium before an NCAA college football game between TCU and Oklahoma State in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022.

(AP Photo/Sam Hodde)

TCU is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Cincinnati
Cincinnati vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

Cincinnati (7-4) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (7-4) on Nov. 29 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Cincinnati vs. TCU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Cincinnati vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cincinnati	+3.5 -110	56.5 -110	145
TCU	-3.5 -110	56.5 -110	-175

Cincinnati vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 62.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Cincinnati and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Cincinnati vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 54.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Cincinnati Best Bets Today

Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.75 Units / 13% ROI)

TCU Best Bets Today

TCU has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 68% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 43% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

Cincinnati is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 3.42% ROI
Cincinnati is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Cincinnati is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU iss 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.15% ROI).

TCU is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -1.2% ROI
TCU is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
TCU is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

TCU’s WRs has gained 2,521 yards on 176 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s QBs has thrown for 3,190 passing yards in 11 games (290.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS teams. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 222.8 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 2,521 yards on 176 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 3,212 yards on 258 receptions (12.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 skill players. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 2,521 yards on 176 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

TCU has at least one sack in each of their last 18 games — this is the longest active Big 12 streak.

TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs this season– 3rd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Matchup Notes for Cincinnati vs. TCU

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

TCU has at least one sack in each of their last 18 games — this is the longest active Big 12 streak.

TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs this season– 3rd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

TCU has at least one sack in each of their last 18 games — this is the longest active Big 12 streak.

TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs this season– 3rd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Cincinnati Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams

TCU has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

TCU has at least one sack in each of their last 18 games — this is the longest active Big 12 streak.

TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs this season– 3rd-highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

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