- California is a -12.5 point favorite vs. San Diego St
- California vs. San Diego State Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
California (3-0) visit Snapdragon Stadium to take on San Diego State (1-1) on Sep. 20 in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.
California is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).
The California vs. San Diego State Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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California vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| California | -12.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 |
| San Diego State | +12.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | 375 |
California vs San Diego State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts California will win this game with 76.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both California and San Diego St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
California vs San Diego State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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California Best Bets Today
- California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- California has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- California has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- California has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
San Diego State Best Bets Today
- San Diego State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- San Diego State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
California Against the Spread (ATS) Record
California is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- California is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 97.92% ROI
- California is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- California is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
San Diego St iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- San Diego State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- San Diego State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- San Diego State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
California: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State
California was 2-4 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498
California was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .379
California is 3-5 (.375) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .613
California was 2-5 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. California
San Diego State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477
San Diego State was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
San Diego State is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .384
San Diego State was 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .460
Matchup Notes for California vs. San Diego State
San Diego State has gained 2,829 yards on 262 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS skill players. California’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.
San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,711 yards on 384 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS RBs. California’s defense have allowed just 4.2 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,711 yards on 384 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS RBs. California’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
California’s WRs has 234 receptions in 16 games (14.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 13.3 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.
California’s WRs has gained 2,800 yards on 234 receptions (just 12.0 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
California has gained 4,143 yards on 373 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
California Offensive Stats & Trends
California’s WRs has 234 receptions in 16 games (14.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed 13.3 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.
California were sacked on 20% of pass attempts (19/96) in the 4th quarter last season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%
California WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
California’s WRs has gained 2,800 yards on 234 receptions (just 12.0 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
California QBs have 13 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since the 2024 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State has gained 2,829 yards on 262 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS skill players. California’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.
San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,711 yards on 384 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS RBs. California’s defense have allowed just 4.2 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9
San Diego State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (22 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
San Diego State have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (22 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.1
California Defensive Stats & Trends
California did not record a sack (48 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
California has not recorded a sack (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3
California has not recorded a sack (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.2
California had no interceptions and 21 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1
California allowed 21 TD passes in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams
San Diego State Defensive Stats & Trends
San Diego State has no interceptions and 3 TD passes allowed this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.6
San Diego State forced 4 fumbles on 509 carries (127.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7
San Diego State has allowed a Completion Pct of 79% (26 completions/33 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 54%
San Diego State allowed a Completion Pct of 75% (21 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
San Diego State allowed 11.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (432 yards / 39 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 5.3
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