BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 11

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against BYU Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Provo, Utah. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
  • Texas Tech is a -10 point favorite vs. BYU
  • BYU vs. Texas Tech Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

BYU (8-0) visit Jones AT&T Stadium to take on Texas Tech (8-1) on Nov. 8 in Lubbock, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Texas Tech is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -10 (-105).

The BYU vs. Texas Tech Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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BYU vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
BYU+10 -11552.5 -110280
Texas Tech -10 -10552.5 -110-350

BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas Tech will win this game with 74.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both BYU and Texas Tech, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

BYU vs Texas Tech Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts BYU will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • BYU has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 2% ROI)
  • BYU have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Texas Tech have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 0% ROI)
  • Texas Tech have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Texas Tech have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.43% ROI).

  • BYU is 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 22.95% ROI
  • BYU is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • BYU is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Texas Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas Tech iss 8-1 against the spread this college football season (+6.9 Units / 69.7% ROI).

  • Texas Tech is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 6.48% ROI
  • Texas Tech is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Texas Tech is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. Texas Tech

BYU’s TEs has gained 265 yards on 21 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,269 yards on 85 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU has 346 receptions in 21 games (just 16.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 22.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has gained 1,731 yards on 130 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — 20th-best among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-best among Big 12 skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 26.6

Texas Tech has allowed just 2.2 Yards per Carry (545 yards/249 carries) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 4.0

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.8

Matchup Notes for BYU vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 26.6

Texas Tech has allowed just 2.2 Yards per Carry (545 yards/249 carries) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 4.0

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.8

BYU’s TEs has gained 265 yards on 21 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,269 yards on 85 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU has 346 receptions in 21 games (just 16.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 22.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has gained 1,731 yards on 130 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — 20th-best among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-best among Big 12 skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU’s TEs has gained 265 yards on 21 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,269 yards on 85 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU has 346 receptions in 21 games (just 16.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 22.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has gained 1,731 yards on 130 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — 20th-best among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-best among Big 12 skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 26.6

Texas Tech has allowed just 2.2 Yards per Carry (545 yards/249 carries) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 4.0

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.8

BYU Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU’s TEs has gained 265 yards on 21 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,269 yards on 85 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU has 346 receptions in 21 games (just 16.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 22.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has gained 1,731 yards on 130 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — 20th-best among FBS skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-best among Big 12 skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 12.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 26.6

Texas Tech has allowed just 2.2 Yards per Carry (545 yards/249 carries) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 4.0

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Texas Tech has forced 14 fumbles this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Texas Tech has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 249 carries (83 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.8


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