- Minnesota is a -17.5 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
- Buffalo vs. Minnesota Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Buffalo (0-0) visit Huntington Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota (0-0) on Aug. 28 in Minneapolis, MN. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
Minnesota is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-110).
The Buffalo vs. Minnesota Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Buffalo vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buffalo | +17.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +650 |
| Minnesota | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -1000 |
Buffalo vs Minnesota Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 81.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Buffalo U and Minnesota, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Buffalo vs Minnesota Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Minnesota will cover the spread with 60.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Buffalo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Buffalo have covered the Spread in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Minnesota have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+7.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Minnesota was 5-7 against the spread last college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).
- Minnesota is 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -63.16% ROI
- Minnesota is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
- Minnesota is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota
Buffalo was undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .633
Buffalo was undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .616
Buffalo is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .705
Buffalo was 8-2 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2024 season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586
Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo
Minnesota was 3-5 (.375) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .577
Minnesota was 1-3 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception in the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .439
Minnesota is 7-10 (.412) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .577
Minnesota is 4-10 (.286) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .445
Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Minnesota
Minnesota’s RBs averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch last season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 5.2 RAC to RBs last season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s RBs had 78 receptions in 13 games (6.0 per game) last season — T-4th-best among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense allowed 20.7 receptions per game last season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Minnesota averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 9.3 RAC to TEs last season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s offense threw for 2,422 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.3 YPG) last season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 176.1 passing yards per game last season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Buffalo’s RBs averaged 10.8 yards after the catch last season — 14th-best among FBS RBs. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 10.4 RAC last season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs threw for 2,422 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.3 YPG) last season — 25th-worst among FBS teams. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 176.1 passing yards per game last season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo’s offense threw for 2,422 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.3 YPG) last season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 176.1 passing yards per game last season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Buffalo’s RBs averaged 10.8 yards after the catch last season — 14th-best among FBS RBs. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 10.4 RAC last season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs threw for 2,422 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.3 YPG) last season — 25th-worst among FBS teams. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 176.1 passing yards per game last season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s RBs averaged 10.8 yards after the catch last season — 14th-best among FBS RBs. Minnesota’s defense allowed just 5.6 RAC to RBs last season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends
Minnesota’s RBs averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch last season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 5.2 RAC to RBs last season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota TEs averaged 22.0 yards per reception (22 yards/1 catches) with 4-6 yards to go in the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.6
Minnesota’s RBs had 78 receptions in 13 games (6.0 per game) last season — T-4th-best among FBS RBs. Buffalo’s defense allowed 20.7 receptions per game last season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Minnesota averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch last season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 9.3 RAC to TEs last season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota WRs have averaged just 11.4 yards per reception (400 yards/35 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6
Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 19 of 128 attempts (15%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 9%
Buffalo has allowed first downs on 43% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Buffalo allowed first downs on 32% of rush attempts on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 60%
Buffalo allowed passes of 20+ yards on 11 of 68 attempts (16%) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 14th-worst in FBS; Average: 10%
Buffalo allowed 223.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs in the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 167.7
Minnesota Defensive Stats & Trends
Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on just 8 of 118 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on just 8 of 118 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
Minnesota allowed first downs on 78% of pass attempts on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 47%
Minnesota allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 21 of 355 attempts (6%) in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2
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