Bowling Green vs Massachusetts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 25, 2025, 12:23 PM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Bowling Green is a -14 point favorite vs. Massachusetts
Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

Bowling Green (3-8) visit Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium to take on Massachusetts (0-11) on Nov. 25 in Amherst, MA. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST.

Bowling Green is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -14 (-115).

The Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bowling Green	-14 -115	44.5 -105	-625
Massachusetts	+14 -105	44.5 -115	450

Bowling Green vs Massachusetts Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Bowling Green will win this game with 78.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Bowling Green and Massachusetts, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Bowling Green vs Massachusetts Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Bowling Green Best Bets Today

Massachusetts has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Massachusetts has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.58 Units / 39% ROI)
Massachusetts has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Massachusetts has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Massachusetts have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Massachusetts Best Bets Today

Bowling Green has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.84 Units / 24% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Bowling Green is 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI).

Bowling Green is 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -19.77% ROI
Bowling Green is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
Bowling Green is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Massachusetts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Massachusetts iss 3-8 against the spread this college football season (-5.85 Units / -48.15% ROI).

Massachusetts is 0-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.65 Units / -100% ROI
Massachusetts is 8-3 when betting the Over for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI
Massachusetts is 3-8 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI

Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Massachusetts

Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Bowling Green TEs had 26 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– most among FBS Teams

Bowling Green WRs have no touchdowns on 55 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5

Bowling Green TEs were targeted 13.5 times per game (176/13) last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Bowling Green TEs averaged 124.9 receiving yards per game (1,624/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 37.2

Massachusetts: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green

UMass WRs have just one touchdown on 128 receptions this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5

UMass have thrown 4 TDs on 352 pass attempts (one TD every 88.0 Pass Attempts) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4

UMass have thrown 2 TDs on 25 pass attempts (one TD every 12.5 Pass Attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 3.7

UMass have thrown 0 TDs on 91 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

UMass have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 13 of their 352 total passing attempts (4%) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Matchup Notes for Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts