- Louisville is a -25.5 point favorite vs. Bowling Green
- Bowling Green vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
Bowling Green (2-1) visit L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to take on Louisville (2-0) on Sep. 20 in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -25.5 (-110).
The Bowling Green vs. Louisville Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Bowling Green vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bowling Green | +25.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | 1400 |
| Louisville | -25.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -5000 |
Bowling Green vs Louisville Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 89.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Bowling Green and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Bowling Green vs Louisville Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 56.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Bowling Green Best Bets Today
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.74 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Louisville Best Bets Today
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+0.40 Units / 1% ROI)
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 12.67% ROI
- Bowling Green is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bowling Green is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville iss 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Louisville is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 5.83% ROI
- Louisville is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Louisville is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Bowling Green is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Bowling Green is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .393
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Louisville was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688
Louisville is 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2024 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .718
Louisville is 8-2 (.800) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .591
Louisville is 10-3 (.769) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .596
Matchup Notes for Bowling Green vs. Louisville
Louisville’s WRs has gained 2,851 yards on 193 receptions (14.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-17th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 12.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 3,897 passing yards in 15 games (259.8 YPG) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS teams. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 190.9 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs have 190.1 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 129.3 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 18th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s QBs has thrown for 529 passing yards in 3 games (just 176.3 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 106.5 passing yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
Bowling Green’s QBs has thrown for 529 passing yards in 3 games (just 176.3 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 106.5 passing yards per game this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green has gained 529 yards on 57 receptions (just 9.3 YPR) this season — T-15th-worst among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Bowling Green’s QBs has thrown for 529 passing yards in 3 games (just 176.3 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 106.5 passing yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
Bowling Green’s QBs has thrown for 529 passing yards in 3 games (just 176.3 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 106.5 passing yards per game this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 176 times last season– most among FBS Teams
Bowling Green TEs averaged 4.2 receptions per game (54/13) in the 2nd half last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 1.7
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville RBs have averaged 11.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (94 yards / 8 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Louisville RBs have averaged 11.8 Yards per Carry (94 yards/8 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Louisville RBs have averaged 15.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (91 yards / 6 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.1
Louisville’s WRs has gained 2,851 yards on 193 receptions (14.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-17th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 12.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville RBs have averaged 10.3 Yards per Carry (421 yards/41 carries) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Bowling Green Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Bowling Green has tackled opponents for a loss on 21 of 97 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Bowling Green has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (21 completions/51 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Bowling Green allowed opponents to catch just 15 of 39 passes (39% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 22% of pass attempts (10/45) this season– best in FBS; Average: 7%
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 22% of pass attempts (10/45) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Louisville has averaged 5.0 sacks per game this season– best in FBS; Average: 2.1
Louisville has averaged 5.0 sacks per game this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.3
Louisville has allowed 3.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (413 yards / 109 touches) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 6.4
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