- Boise St is a -6.5 point favorite vs. South Florida
- Boise State vs. South Florida Total (Over/Under): 62.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Boise State (0-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida (0-0) on Aug. 28 in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30pm EDT.
Boise St is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).
The Boise State vs. South Florida Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Boise State vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Boise State | -6.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -235 |
| South Florida | +6.5 -115 | 62.5 -110 | +190 |
Boise State vs South Florida Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 68.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Boise St and South Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Boise State vs South Florida Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 90.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State
South Florida was 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2024 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .574
South Florida was 1-3 (.250) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– T-15th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .474
South Florida was 6-2 (.750) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586
South Florida is 4-6 (.400) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 34th-worst in FBS; Average: .532
Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. South Florida
South Florida’s WRs averaged 25.9 targets per game last season — T-14th-highest among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense allowed 15.0 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Florida’s RBs had 2 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-5th-best among FBS RBs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
South Florida’s WRs had 198 receptions in 13 games (15.2 per game) last season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense allowed 15.0 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.
Boise State’s RBs had just 16.9 receiving yards per game last season — T-30th-worst among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense allowed 278.7 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Boise State’s RBs had just 16.9 receiving yards per game last season — T-30th-worst among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense allowed 33.8 receiving yards per game to RBs last season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Boise State’s RBs had just 16.9 receiving yards per game last season — T-30th-worst among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense allowed 278.7 receiving yards per game last season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends
Boise State RBs rushed for 15 TDs in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
Boise State RBs averaged 231.5 rushing yards per game (3,009/13) in the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.1
Boise State RBs averaged 6.9 Yards per Carry (3,009 yards/436 carries) in the 2024 season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Boise State RBs rushed for 36 TDs in the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
Boise State RBs rushed for 835 yards in the 1st quarter in the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
South Florida’s WRs averaged 25.9 targets per game last season — T-14th-highest among FBS WRs. Boise State’s defense allowed 15.0 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Florida TEs averaged 20.7 yards per reception (62 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
South Florida WRs averaged a touchdown every 19.8 receptions (198 Rec/10 TDs) in the 2024 season– 8th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
South Florida WRs fumbled 8 times in the 2024 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
South Florida RBs averaged 5.6 Yards per Carry (1,867 yards/336 carries) in the 2024 season– T-28th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Boise State Defensive Stats & Trends
Boise State sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– most in FBS
Boise State sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (52/426) in the 2024 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Boise State averaged 4.0 sacks per game in the 2024 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1
Boise State sacked opponents 52 times in the 2024 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Boise State sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
South Florida Defensive Stats & Trends
South Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 146 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
South Florida sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS
South Florida defense has allowed 115 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-most in FBS
South Florida has allowed 115 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
South Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 146 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
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