Boise St vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2025, 3:16 PM

min read

(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Boise St is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
Boise State vs. Nevada Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

Boise State (5-2) visit Mackay Stadium to take on Nevada (1-6) on Oct. 24 in Reno, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT.

Boise St is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).

The Boise State vs. Nevada Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

Bet now on Nevada vs Boise St & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Boise State vs. Nevada Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Boise State	-21.5 -110	51.5 -115	-2000
Nevada	+21.5 -110	51.5 -105	1000

Boise State vs Nevada Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 76.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Boise St and Nevada, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Boise State vs Nevada Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Nevada vs Boise St and all games with BetMGM

Get a New Customer Offer

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise St is 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI).

Boise State is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 2.65% ROI
Boise State is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Boise State is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada iss 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).

Nevada is 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -62.31% ROI
Nevada is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Nevada is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Nevada is winless (0-12) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .428

Nevada is 3-16 (.158) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .419

Nevada is 1-13 (.071) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .412

Nevada is winless (0-12) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .374

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Boise State RBs have averaged 211.8 rushing yards per game (4,447/21) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 125.9

Boise State RBs averaged 222.9 rushing yards per game (3,120/14) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 125.9

Boise State RBs have averaged 6.5 Yards per Carry (4,447 yards/686 carries) since the 2024 season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Boise State RBs rushed for 15 TDs in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

Boise State’s RBs has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season — T-28th-highest among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense has allowed 4.3 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. Nevada