Will Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game Really Decide the Heisman Trophy? Probably Not.

The Heisman Trophy will be awarded next weekend, and BetMGM’s Heisman odds market has essentially whittled down to three players: Diego Pavia, Julian Sayin, and Fernando Mendoza.

The latter two are set to face off this weekend in a highly anticipated game with incredible stakes. Both teams will make the postseason, but the winner can claim the Big Ten championship, an undefeated 13-0 season, and the surefire No. 1 seed in this year’s College Football Playoff.

Hypothetically, the loser could lose the first-round bye awarded to the top four teams. Even if it doesn’t, it will still fall in the seedings and face a tougher potential path to the national championship game.

So, yes, the stakes are high. And if some analysts are to be believed, there is even more riding on this game: the Heisman Trophy.

For most of November, one popular theory in both the Big Ten and the Heisman Trophy betting market has revolved around the Big Ten championship. With Mendoza and Indiana on a crash course to face Sayin and Ohio State, some bettors have shorthanded the Big Ten championship as a Heisman Trophy faceoff.

In other words: Win the game, and you win the trophy.

🏈”I think they have a great chance, it’s gonna be a massive viewership. Julian Sayin had last week’s game, I don’t think anyone has solidified. The voter are willing to be convinced.”

📞@DanWetzel on if the Big Ten championship winning QB will win the Heisman🍿 pic.twitter.com/tIeOJ90b6j

— 92.3 The Fan (@923TheFan) December 3, 2025

This theory has become pretty pervasive as conference championship week has approached. In the middle of this week, BetMGM’s market even equalized at the top, showing both Sayin and Mendoza as +165 co-favorites. 

But this theory that the Heisman will go as the Big Ten does conveniently smooths over a lot of potential outcomes. 

For one thing, it completely ignores Pavia, who is floating at 2-to-1 odds this week. Pavia might not be playing this week, but his +200 price suggests he has nearly as good a chance to win the award as the other two quarterbacks. In an awards market, there is not a terribly substantial difference between +165 and +200. And if you believe in the Heisman as a narrative-based award, Pavia has the best story of any of these guys!

Take a look at The Athletic’s straw Heisman poll of college football writers and editors from this week. Mendoza remains in first place with 56 points, but for the first time all season, Pavia is actually receiving the most first-place votes. He narrowly trails Mendoza with 52 points. Sayin trails both by a significant margin with 18 points. 

Does this accurately reflect the giant pool of voters that the Heisman Trophy has these days? Maybe. Maybe not. It’s very difficult to project a voting pool of 900 voters using 26 writers.

But multiple straw polls from various outlets have all reflected the same thing over the final weeks of the season – a surge from Pavia, and a hesitancy to credit Sayin, specifically, for the accomplishments of his stacked Ohio State team.

Bettors can draw a few inferences from this environment. 

Imagine an ugly Big Ten championship game where neither quarterback looks great and the defenses dominate. Couldn’t Pavia win in a situation like that?

Imagine a Big Ten scenario where Mendoza outplays Sayin, but the Ohio State defense is so good that the Buckeyes get key stops and win the game. Couldn’t that result in an Ohio State win but a Mendoza Heisman Trophy?

If these November and December straw polls are to be believed, Sayin actually has quite a lot of ground to make up to overtake Mendoza. How badly would Ohio State have to maul Indiana to make that happen? Is it even possible to make it up in one awesome, high-stakes game?

One of the dominant narratives this month — fueled by a whole lot of hope & cope from Columbus — is that the quarterback who wins the Big Ten championship will win the Heisman.

But if that was true, wouldn’t we just see something like: Sayin -135, Mendoza +150, and everyone…

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) November 27, 2025

All three quarterbacks have credible cases to win the Heisman. For example, my VSIN friend Tyler Shoemaker has made especially great arguments for Sayin, noting that the analysts and betting markets haven’t fully appreciated the stats Sayin has achieved in the context of Ohio State’s slow pace of play.

Pavia grinded his way to the top, delivering Vanderbilt’s first 10-win season in over 100 years of football.

Mendoza helmed Indiana to an unprecedented season, with at least two games left. Maybe more.

Voters might cast their lot with any of these three guys. They’d all be worthy candidates. Boiling the campaign down to the fate of Saturday’s Big Ten championship game is shortsighted, lazy, and probably incorrect.