College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 6

It’s Week 6 of the college football season, and the calendar is finally turning to October. As conference play progresses, college football betting becomes a more difficult enterprise.

I kept my predictions list small last week since I didn’t like much. Fortunately, the opposite is true this week – I see a lot of numbers and teams that I like. 

Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Prediction

This number immediately stood out to me, as undefeated, first-place Iowa State is a slight underdog at Cincinnati, with the Bearcats coming off a surprising win at Kansas in Week 5. 

Weekly readers know I lean heavily on unranked favorites against ranked dogs, but this is going to be a rare exception for me. For one thing, Cincinnati’s status as a -120 moneyline favorite barely qualifies as a favorite. For another, it feels like a marketplace overcorrection after the Kansas win.

For me, the best prediction here is actually in the totals market. ISU quarterback Rocco Becht should find plenty of success passing the ball against Cincinnati’s back end, which ranks 133rd in FBS in EPA/pass allowed. Overall, the Cincinnati defense ranks outside the top 100 in defensive success rate.

Iowa State’s defense ranked a lot better coming out of Week 5, but head coach Matt Campbell revealed that Iowa State has lost Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper for the year – both are previous All-Conference defensive back honorees.

I think the offenses will find some rhythm in the passing game on Saturday, cashing a modest college total that’s currently set at 54.5.

Prediction: Over 54.5

Navy vs. Air Force Prediction

Typically, the move here is to play the oft-cited stat for service academy unders, which has become one of the most well-known bets of modern college football. Between Air Force and Navy specifically, the under is 15-5-1 since 2004. 

The problem with playing that trend this weekend is that Air Force has a dreadful defense, ranking 130th in defensive success rate and 136th (dead last) in EPA/pass allowed and 3rd down defensive success rate.

This total has already come down some, as generally savvy bettors reflexively hit the under early in the week on a well-known trend like this. But Air Force is actually 4-0 to the over this year because there’s a huge perception gap between what they look like and what they actually are.

I’m predicting that Navy has no trouble scoring against Air Force’s defense, so a team total for the Middies might not be a bad move. The best option might just be for Navy to cover.

Prediction: Navy -10.5

Penn State vs. UCLA Prediction

UCLA is dreadful, and Penn State’s offense is woefully underrated. Add in a cross-country flight to the Rose Bowl, and this just feels like a boring, grindy, low-scoring game with lots of punting and bad red-zone offense.

Prediction: Under 50.5

Louisville vs. Virginia Prediction

Now, here’s your chance to play the unranked favorite against the ranked dog. 

Virginia jumped into the AP Top 25 last week after edging out Florida State in double overtime. A point spread this significant, on top of the trend, sends a very clear signal about the market’s belief in Virginia in this game.

Louisville -7.5 is one of my favorite spots of the year so far. That said, it might be worth waiting this number out to see if it goes to a flat Louisville -7. 

Prediction: Louisville -7.5

James Madison vs Georgia State Prediction 

JMU is 4-0 ATS and fresh off a truly belligerent showing against Georgia Southern, where it averaged 6.2 yards per rush. The final tally was 331 yards on the ground. And three of the top five running backs were hurt!

This week’s opponent, the Panthers rank 136th – dead last in FBS – for EPA/rush allowed.

Even with a healthy adjustment for opponents played, this is a very bad matchup for Georgia State. JMU should get RBs Ayo Adeyi and Jobi Malary back, too. 

A point spread of 19.5 is either way too deferential to Georgia State’s nonexistent homefield advantage, or else not adequately representing the delta between these two teams. This number is -19.5 on Tuesday, but it should probably be closer to -27.5.

The only question for me is how many running backs will hit 100 yards. (I’m guessing three.)

Prediction: JMU -19.5

Oregon State vs. Appalachian State Prediction

The number says it all here. Oregon State is 0-5, yet the Beavers were (until recently) a short road favorite on the East Coast in Boone against App State – 2,700 miles away from Corvallis. 

Early action has flipped this game to App State as a nominal -115 favorite, but I think the opening number had it right. App State has been thoroughly dominated in two straight games now and only beat FCS Lindenwood by one score in Week 2. 

Oregon State’s record is bad, but they showed last Friday against Houston that the Beavs are mostly just punching up at power teams. Against a struggling G5 team, they should finally get one on the board. 

Prediction: Oregon State -105

Ohio State vs. Minnesota Prediction

Very complex handicap here. Ready?

Ohio State’s defense is very good. So far, it’s allowed seven, zero, nine, and six points.

Will it be Minnesota that sets the high-water mark? In Columbus? I’m guessing not.

Prediction: Minnesota Team Total Under 9.5

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Like JMU, Mississippi State is another team that has completely flown under the radar this season with its strong ATS performances. When Tennessee prevailed in overtime last weekend, it mostly preserved that stealth market success. 

I quite like that I’m getting two touchdowns and the hook with what might be the straight-up better team.

Prediction: Mississippi State +14.5