College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 5

As conference play gets more fully underway this week, bettors should tread carefully. The transition from nonconference games to conference games brings many assumptions from bettors, and the familiarity of annual opponents often undermines those assumptions.

With that in mind, I’m keeping my list of predictions short this week to make sure I don’t undermine my strong record from last week’s picks. 

Arizona State vs TCU Prediction

It’s only relevant a few times every year, but one of my favorite college football betting strategies is to target unranked favorites against underdogs currently ranked in the AP Top 25. 

The first opportunity to bet this trend comes on Friday night, as No. 24 TCU heads to Tempe on a short week to play reigning conference champion Arizona State. 

For now, ASU remains at a great buy point south of -3. But honestly, even if this number moved to ASU -3, I would still feel pretty strongly about the Sun Devils’ side of this game. My belief in the fundamentals of the trend is that strong.

Prediction: Arizona State -2.5

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Prediction

If you’ve watched any Oklahoma State this year, this prediction won’t surprise you. The Cowboys play decent defense, but the offense is atrocious. They just lost at home to Tulsa in a game that went under the total by about 15 points.

Baylor has had some problems defending the rush this year, but that will be less of a problem against an OSU offense that is rudderless and, at this point, likely demoralized. The season is one or two early conference losses away from feeling totally gone. 

Like last week’s total against Tulsa, I just feel this number is way too high for an Oklahoma State offense that doesn’t seem to know what it’s doing. 

Prediction: Under 58.5

South Carolina vs. Kentucky Prediction

Even in a world where South Carolina’s offense wasn’t underperforming, this would look like a sneaky-good spot for an under. 

Kentucky has averaged 11 points per game against South Carolina across the last three years. The under has cashed in four straight games and is 9-1 across the previous 10 head-to-head outcomes.

The fact that South Carolina has struggled on offense is merely present-year context that adds to the strength of this prediction.

Prediction: Under 46.5

Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP Prediction

LaTech has quietly been very impressive this year, covering all four of its games and playing its way into near-favorite status in Conference USA. The Bulldogs jumped all over a good Southern Miss team last week.

To me, this LaTech -4 line is an adjustment for the Bulldogs, but it doesn’t go far enough in giving respect to a potential conference favorite, playing a road game against a UTEP team that just doesn’t look that good. 

Prediction: Louisiana Tech -4

College Football Week 5 Predictions

• Arizona State -2.5
• Louisiana Tech -4
• Baylor/Oklahoma State Under 58.5
• South Carolina/Kentucky Under 46.5