College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 3

Week 3 of the college football schedule brings another difficult week of handicapping. With about 20% of the FBS subdivision playing an FCS opponent and several more teams on early byes, this may be another week where it will be difficult to find strong bets. 

This week, my first foray into the college football odds market will be Friday night.

Kansas State vs. Arizona Prediction

Kansas State opened this game as a short favorite. By Sunday night, Arizona had flipped into a nominal moneyline favorite, which is where the game is priced today.

It’s hard to disagree with the market movement. Kansas State is 1-2 and has yet to beat an FBS team this season. Even its one win against FCS North Dakota was a struggle that ended in a late, one-possession victory. 

Arizona was picked near the bottom of the Big 12 this year, but the Wildcats have looked much more capable than last year in early wins against Hawai’i and FCS Weber State. I don’t want to overreact to wins against lesser opponents, but I’ve seen enough to know that Noah Fifita’s 2025 offense is going to look a lot more like it did in 2023. 

I’ll predict that Kansas State’s bad year keeps getting worse. 

Prediction: Arizona -115

Western Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction

Here’s an interesting find, and not the kind of game I typically look at. Illinois is set to host Western Michigan in a typical mid-September game between a Big Ten school and a MAC punching bag. 

Typically, the game goes something like this: The Big Ten school bullies the MAC team all afternoon, running the ball 50 times and cruising to a fast, easy win. I say fast, because the constant running clock of a run-dominated game can crank this thing out in a tight three-hour window that skews toward a low-scoring game. 

That’s what the market is anticipating, with Illinois roughly priced as a four-touchdown favorite with a total of 50.5. 

Nine times out of 10, this would be either a pass or an under for me. But in this case, I think the market isn’t doing enough to account for Illinois’ offense, which is more explosive than you might expect of a team in the footprint of the old Big Ten West. 

The Illini rang up 45 points on a good Duke team last week and 52 in Week 1 against FCS Western Illinois.

Illinois went under the total in Week 1 because it was priced in the low 60s. Here, at 50.5, I think Illinois will break 40 yet again and get very close to an over on its own. A team total could be interesting here, too, depending on where the number comes in. 

Prediction: Over 50.5

Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern Prediction

The preseason expectations for Georgia Southern were to challenge JMU in the Sun Belt East. 

As far as I can tell, that’s the only reason for this game to be priced at Georgia Southern -3.5. Based on the results of the first two games, there’s nothing that I can see that suggests the Eagles are more than a field goal better than Jacksonville State, which played a competitive game with UCF before handling Liberty last Saturday. 

Prediction: Jacksonville State +3.5

Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Prediction

Notre Dame had a bye week to prepare for this game. Since it’s Notre Dame, let’s assume the game plan is going to involve a heavy dose of jumbo packages and Jeremiyah Love.

Now, an interesting stat for Texas A&M: Through the first two weeks of the season, the Aggies are allowing 4.1 yards per rush. That ranks 80th in FBS.

If you’re an advanced analytics guy, try this: Texas A&M’s defense is +0.09 EPA/rush allowed, which ranks 111th in FBS. And their opponent’s starting field position is the plus-47-yard-line. So far, the average drive against Texas A&M has started in Texas A&M territory. 

As you can imagine, that’s the No. 1 worst mark in FBS college football.

So, who has Texas A&M played through the first two weeks that has had such mighty success on the ground against Texas A&M? That would be… UTSA and Utah State.

I like Notre Dame.

Prediction: Notre Dame -7 

Oklahoma vs. Temple Prediction

Absolutely everything about this looks like a trap. 

Oklahoma is primed for disappointment, traveling to Philadelphia to play a G5 team. Emotionally speaking, the Sooners were all the way up for College GameDay last week, making this Saturday a classic letdown spot. 

On the other side, Temple has quietly looked pretty competent after hiring K.C. Keeler away from Sam Houston. This is not the doormat team of the last half-decade.

Guess what? I don’t care about any of that. I am a huge believer in the Sooners’ John Mateer/Ben Arbuckle offensive battery, and I’m going to bet that it’s letdown-proof. This offense should score enough points to cover a number in this range – even in an on-paper letdown game. 

Prediction: Oklahoma -22.5

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Prediction

As a West Virginia guy, I’m a little surprised it took me so deep into the week to arrive at the obvious bet here.

West Virginia’s offense has looked dreadful so far this season, and now the Mountaineers have lost bell-cow back Jahiem White for the season. Pittsburgh is a rightful favorite here, but this is the Backyard Brawl, which means everyone is going to play with their hair on fire. WVU has the added motivation of looking for redemption after losing at Ohio last week.

Since the Brawl has been revived, the Morgantown editions have been dead under games with an average final of about 33 points scored per game. 

Considering the history, the rivalry, and West Virginia’s offensive issues, the under is clearly my favorite angle on this game. 

Prediction: Under 55.5