College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 13

With Week 13 now here, and only two weeks of games left in the regular season, the value is now squarely on the underdogs in the college football odds market.

With many favorites looking forward to rivalry games or postseason potential, and betting markets overvaluing that potential, it’s another great time to bet underdogs and moneylines. 

Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Prediction

The Red Wolves have been quietly competent in the Sun Belt this year, but my interest in them has been their consistency in the totals market. 

Arkansas State is 8-2 to the under this season, making it one of the best under teams in FBS. 

In this game specifically, both teams want to run the ball, so a running clock should be another data point in favor of the under. 

Prediction: Under 53.5

Charlotte +43.5 vs Georgia

You don’t need me to tell you who the better team is here, but there’s quite a lot of reason to like the giant bucket of points with Charlotte here.

For one, Kirby Smart’s Georgia teams just don’t win by this kind of margin. He plays second-string guys early and runs clock in the second half. There are a lot of examples.

Look at Week 1 this year, where the Bulldogs didn’t cover against Marshall in a 45-7 win. They beat FCS Austin Peay 28-6 a week later.

Last year, in a similarly timed game to this week, Georgia beat dreadful UMass 59-21. It was two weeks before the SEC Championship, and the Bulldogs didn’t cover the mid-40s point spread.

In 2023, Georgia played early games against UT Martin (FCS) and Ball State (FBS). It won by 41 and 42 points, respectively.

Kirby just doesn’t win by more than 42 that often. And this year, with arguably the biggest Georgia/Georgia Tech game in decades scheduled for next week, he’s just not going to be interested in running it up against Charlotte.

Prediction: Charlotte +43.5

Kennesaw State/Missouri State Under 57.5

Missouri State is another team that’s been an excellent under team this year. I’ve featured the Bears in the column several times since the start of October, and I’m going back to the well again this week.

Kennesaw is having its best-ever season right now, so this total reflects that improved offensive output. But I think a total in the upper 50s has proved too high for most Missouri State games, and so I once again like the under.

Prediction: Under 57.5

Texas vs. Arkansas Prediction

Arkansas is preparing to end one of the wildest seasons ever. The Razorbacks are 0-6 in conference play with two still to come, and all six losses have come by less than 10 points. Five of the six have been one-score games. 

Arkansas is catching more than a touchdown here because it’s a struggling team with a bad record and a fired head coach. But if you actually look at the week-to-week margins here, Arkansas at north of a touchdown is a great value. All it does is play close games.

And besides, what has Texas done to earn this kind of respect?

Prediction: Arkansas +9.5

Tulane vs. Temple Prediction

The American has been quite good this season, which has been a boon to its CFP chances. That’s the good news for AAC fans.

The bad news is that it’s been so good that its teams keep beating each other up. Memphis beat USF, but lost to Tulane. USF lost to Navy but blew out North Texas. Tulane lost to UTSA. Navy got blown out by interloper Notre Dame. 

Tulane appears to be back in the driver’s seat for the CFP, at least according to Tuesday’s updated rankings. But it might be time for KC Keeler’s Temple squad to jump into the AAC craziness.

Temple looks pretty scrappy with a good passing offense. The Owls have had an extra week to prepare for this game and get to host a playoff-ranked opponent to put an exclamation on Keeler’s freshman FBS season. 

The outright upset ultimately might not happen. But at +8.5, I like the potential for Temple to keep it close. 

Prediction: Temple +8.5

UCF vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

As I’ve written here every week for the past month, Oklahoma State is not playing like a one-win team anymore. It’s one of these teams at the bottom of the Big 12 that has found some things that work late in the season, and the market is struggling to reflect that.

In a road game against UCF – the 14th-place team in the conference! – the improving Cowboys just should not be catching two full touchdowns. Once again, I like the points. 

Prediction: Oklahoma State +14

Penn State vs. Nebraska Prediction

Penn State got its first conference win of the season last week against dreadful Michigan State. Suddenly, it’s back to laying well north of a touchdown against a pretty good Nebraska team.

But, uhh, why? Why should this chronically overvalued 2025 team (3-7 ATS) give up more than a full score of advantage to Matt Rhule’s most competent team in years?

The only real thing you can point out here is that Nebraska is now without Dylan Raiola, who broke his right fibula at the beginning of November. But even if you aren’t in the camp that thinks Raiola is massively overrated – I am – there’s no way that the move from him to backup TJ Lateef is worth this kind of downgrade.

I like Nebraska in point spread and moneyline markets.

Prediction: Nebraska +9.5

Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction

Death. Taxes. Florida having Tennessee’s number.

Even when Tennessee is good and Florida sucks, I’m betting the Gators in this game every year. 

Prediction: Florida + 4.5

College Football Best Bets: Week 13

• Louisiana/Arkansas State Under 53.5
• Charlotte +43.5
• Kennesaw State/Missouri State Under 57.5
• Arkansas +9.5
• Temple +8.5
• Oklahoma +14
• Nebraska +9.5
• Florida +4.5