College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 12

Dogs, unders, and a skeptical approach to favorites – Historically, that’s the successful approach to betting college football odds as the schedule moves later into November.

With Week 12 now on deck, many of my favorite bets for Saturday follow this approach. 

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction

South Carolina has been disappointing this season, after the Gamecocks were tabbed as a contender by many pundits in the preseason. They’re 3-6 and need to win out to make a bowl game.

On a game-by-game basis, though, it’s not like South Carolina has been dead in the water every game. Five of its last six opponents were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the game, and four of those five were two-possession games or better. 

Texas A&M will be 10-0 when this game ends, but I expect South Carolina to continue to play up to its competition. 

Prediction: South Carolina +19.5

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction

I jumped on the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago as a team that’s made midseason changes and is now playing better than their record. 

As long as they keep getting fat numbers against mid-table Big 12 teams, I’ll probably keep liking Oklahoma State sides. 

Prediction: Oklahoma State +20.5

James Madison vs. Appalachian State Prediction

JMU has a target on its back in virtually every Sun Belt remaining game, but that’s especially true in these quasi-rivalry games against App State. 

JMU has been the better team in each of the last two years; App State has played up to the Dukes’ level and earned an outright win in both cases. 

I understand why the market is pricing this game in this zone, but I fully expect this game to be competitive into the second half. I like the points. 

Prediction: App State +21

Michigan vs. Northwestern Prediction

The total is what jumped out at me here, since any number south of 42 is considered quite low for college football. 

I naturally gravitate toward low-total unders, and this feels like a road game where Michigan will rely heavily on its defense, run game, and ball control. 

Michigan blasted Northwestern last year at the end of a bad season for the Wildcats, winning 50-6. But the three games before that? 33-7. 20-17. 38-0. 

That’s about what I’m expecting in this spot, and the low total seems to confirm that. I like the under. 

Prediction: Under 41.5

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction

Alabama is having one of those seasons where fans and bettors alike just keep waiting for the Tide to lose. Even I have been guilty of this from time to time.

But the Tide have ripped off eight straight wins. They’ve covered every home game they’ve played this year. And the buy point is getting lower here, as midweek movement appears to favor Oklahoma plus the points. 

I like Alabama at any price under -7.

Prediction: Alabama -6

Texas Tech vs. UCF Prediction

I suppose this is technically a letdown spot after Texas Tech bludgeoned BYU last weekend, but the Red Raiders have been consistent killers throughout the entire season. All nine of their wins have come by 20 points or more.

In Tech’s two games against current sub-.500 Big 12 opponents this season, its margins have been 42 and 25. 

So, yes, this is a big number to lay in November. But as I’ve pointed out for the last month, Texas Tech’s greatness is not being properly accounted for in either spread markets or futures markets. That’s one reason why the Red Raiders are among the best cover teams of this season. 

Prediction: Texas Tech -23.5

Duke vs. Virginia Prediction

Duke has an inside track to the ACC championship game, and Virginia has been due for negative regression to the mean for several weeks now. 

There is some question about whether or not UVA quarterback Chandler Morris played in this game. Even if he doesn’t, I’m interested in laying the modest number with the unranked team against UVA. 

Prediction: Duke -4

Southern Miss vs. Texas State Prediction

Look, Texas State is talented. The offense has a lot of talent, and GJ Kinne is a good coach. But the Bobcats are 0-5 in conference play this season, and Southern Miss is in the driver’s seat to win the West and play for the conference championship.

Let’s also add in that Southern Miss has covered every home game it’s played this year, except against a way-better-than-everyone-thought Mississippi State team in Week 1.

Given all that, isn’t this number a bit silly? I would lay anything less than seven without a thought. 

Prediction: Southern Miss -4.5

BYU vs. TCU Prediction

This feels like a big overcorrection after BYU got trashed by Texas Tech last week. 

If you’re watching the Big 12, you know TCU hasn’t looked quite right since September, including last week’s puzzling home loss to Iowa State. 

In a road trip to Provo, in a time slot where BYU seems to never lose, this is another number that just seems far too low. Again, I would lay anything less than seven without much of a thought here. 

Prediction: BYU -4.5

College Football Best Bets: Week 12

• South Carolina +18.5
• Oklahoma State +20.5
• App State +20.5
• Michigan/Northwestern Under 41.5
• Alabama -6
• Texas Tech -23.5
• Duke -5.5
• Southern -4.5
• BYU -4.5