College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 1

It’s really happening. The 2025 college football season is finally here. 

Week 0 kicks off the action in Ireland on Aug. 23, with Week 1 beginning early just a few days later. 

BetMGM has already posted college football odds for most Week 1 games, though there will be some smaller games that will be priced closer to Aug. 30. You can check out my full analysis of the college football Week 1 schedule at the link there.

But with real games now on the horizon, it’s a good time for bettors to get serious about taking single-game positions. Some key point spreads are already starting to move, and in many cases, that means value is slipping away. 

I’ll add more game predictions to this post as we get closer to Week 1. For now, here are the games I jumped on early. 

Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction

I did a fair amount of homework this offseason on ATS records for teams traveling multiple time zones for a road game. 

The short version of my findings? Fade the road favorites in these scenarios.

Alongside Georgia Tech’s trip to Colorado, Boise State’s late-August flight to humid Florida is a qualifying mega road trip game. I’m predicting a competitive game from the underdog, which Boise also got last year in Week 1 with its trip to Statesboro.

Prediction: South Florida +6

Auburn vs. Baylor Prediction

It’s time to stop pretending like I don’t feel strongly about this game. I think Baylor is the straight-up better team, with the straight-up better quarterback. The Bears might end up with the better defense. They are playing at home and will be motivated to earn a head-to-head win against the big, bad SEC.

Despite all this, Baylor is +110 at BetMGM. As far as I can tell, there are two reasons for that.

The first is that the market was not keyed into the second half of Baylor’s 2024 season, where they really turned it on and became one of the best teams in the Big 12. As this year’s futures market hints at, Baylor is poised to capitalize on that growth this year.

The second is that bettors are forced to pay an SEC premium to bet the SEC team in this SEC vs. Big 12 game.

I like Baylor to win. You can keep your points, because I don’t need them.

Prediction: Baylor +110

Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss Prediction

Southern Miss has been dreadful for years. But the Eagles fired Will Hall after last season and brought in former Marshall head coach Charles Huff in one of the stranger coaching dramas of the last two years. Huff won the Sun Belt last year, but neither he nor the university was interested in prolonging his contract in Huntington. The blood had gotten too bad.

So Huff left, and he took most of his starting 22 with him to Southern Miss. Then, he added some nice hidden gems through the transfer portal, grabbing several castoffs from Ole Miss and Mississippi State, plus FCS standouts like Portland State linebacker Michael Montgomery.

As a result of this massive talent injection, the market has been way too soft on Southern Miss, pricing it like a rebounding G5 team with some potential wins on the schedule. This is very wrong – it should be priced as a conference champion, since that’s essentially what it is. 

Most of this inefficiency is over in the futures markets, but there’s potential here in the Week 1 straight bets market, too. This was +14.5 in the spring, but I still like Southern Miss as a spread prediction at any double-digit price point. The moneyline is interesting here, too.

Prediction: Southern Miss +11.5

Marshall vs. Georgia Prediction

Everything I just said about Southern Miss? Well, here’s the other side of the coin. Marshall is devastated in the wake of losing that much of its roster, and it’s going to be a long, uphill climb back to relevance in the rugged Sun Belt East.

The Thundering Herd’s reward? A Week 1 date with Georgia. Oof.

It’s not uncommon to see spreads around -40 in Week 1, but that’s usually for FCS vs. FBS games. It’s quite rare to see spreads in this range when both teams are Football Bowl Subdivision residents. 

That scarcity hints at a trend here. Favorites laying giant numbers like this against FBS teams actually have a great cover record. The number is telling you just how bad the opponent is. 

I like Georgia to run up the score against Marshall here, making this my first cover prediction of the 2025 season for a favorite. 

Prediction: Georgia -39.5

Kentucky vs. Toledo Prediction

Mark Stoops has turned his annual MAC cover into a cottage industry. The 13th-year head coach has won and covered four straight season openers, but the more impressive stat here is that he’s 13-4 ATS against the MAC.

I don’t think this is a random trend. The market perception of Kentucky is often that it’s a basketball school fighting to stay above water during its SEC football schedule. But Stoops is a great coach who regularly wins against expectations, and nowhere is that more clear than with this MAC trend. 

A straight -7 would be lovely, but I’m skeptical that you’ll ever see one. 

Prediction: Kentucky -7.5

Tennessee vs. Syracuse Prediction

Josh Heupel has a nice track record of entering the season with an excellent Week 1 game plan. Over the last three seasons, Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its openers and is averaging 59 points per game. 

On top of that, Heupel is also 4-0 ATS against ACC opponents, winning by an average margin of 25 points. 

With a capable quarterback coming in courtesy of App State transplant Joey Aguilar, I think Tennessee will continue to put up big numbers, even at a “neutral” site. (Vols fans will heavily outnumber Syracuse football fans in Atlanta.)

At -14, I’m inclined to favor the Tennessee side of this. Bettors who feel similarly should consider grabbing this before the number potentially moves down any further. 

Prediction: Tennessee -14

Michigan vs. New Mexico Prediction

New Mexico had a surprisingly competent 2024 season under Bronco Mendenhall. Now that he’s left for Utah State, I expect the Lobos to be dreadful again. 

Michigan’s defense is a rough place to start. My guess is that the offense will struggle to get to seven points. 

The downside in this game is that Michigan bettors have to lay a big number here with unproven Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. Michigan is also 3-6 ATS against Mountain West teams since 2011. On top of that, the Wolverines are 17-27-2 ATS as a 20-point favorite since 2014. 

So instead, I like the total here. Michigan is 8-1 to the under in its last nine games against Mountain West opponents, and as I said, New Mexico will probably struggle to score anything in this game. 

Prediction: Under 50.5

Indiana vs. Old Dominion Prediction

Here’s a Chase Kiddy special. I have watched Curt Cignetti beat the crap out of ODU more than once. I have watched him cover double-digit numbers in Week 1 like it’s nothing. I have watched him destroy middling G5 teams with a frightening consistency.

I am not afraid to look at a number like this when the circumstances are right. And here, with Curt Cignetti still in possession of large portions of the 2023 JMU defense, the circumstances are right. 

Prediction: Indiana -22.5

Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina Prediction

Welcome to the Beamer Bowl. Under Brent Pry, Virginia Tech is 12-8 to the over away from Lane Stadium. This game, which will be played in Atlanta, qualifies for the trend.

That’s before anyone plugs in the LaNorris Sellers factor. If the South Carolina quarterback plays anywhere remotely near the expectations that have been hyped for him this offseason, the Gamecocks might be able to hit this number by themselves. 

Prediction: Over 48.5

Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction

Virginia is a candidate to make a nice jump up the conference standings here in ACC country. While I’m not sure I buy that just yet, I do think they’re probably being underpriced against this Coastal Carolina team, which has felt pretty close to dead since Jamey Chadwell left three years ago.

Last year, UVA won in Conway 43-24 despite playing as a three-point favorite. This year, with a competent quarterback in Chandler Morris and the game serving as the home opener, I think the winning margin could get even bigger. Did I mention the Cavs have 15 starters back?

Prediction: Virginia -12.5

College Football Best Bets: Week 1

• South Florida +6
• Southern Miss +11.5
• Georgia -39.5
• Kentucky -7.5
• Tennessee -14
• Michigan/New Mexico Under 50.5
• Indiana -22.5
• Virginia Tech/South Carolina Over 48.5
• Virginia -12.5