College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 14: Rivalry Week

The best week of the college football season has arrived. This is Rivalry Week, where records don’t matter and every underdog has a chance to win outright.

While you’re enjoying your turkey and leftovers over the next several days, consider firing up a few of the following plus-money sides. 

They may not fit on the table, but they’ll be no less delicious.

Egg Bowl Prediction: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

There are usually worse bets to make than an under in a rivalry game, and it doesn’t get much more heated in the South than the Egg Bowl. 

This is a huge total, so an under makes sense without any stats or trends. But as it happens, the under has now hit in eight straight Egg Bowls, as well as six of the last seven games in Starkville. 

I’m vaguely interested in Mississippi State positions here, but the strongest angle is clearly the under. 

Prediction: Under 62.5

Navy at Memphis Prediction

My gut reaction here was to pursue the points with an underrated Navy side, but some extra research pointed me at another total bet. 

The over has cashed three straight times in this series with an average of about 67 points per game. Both passing defenses are quite bad, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA/pass allowed. Expect offense. 

Prediction: Over 58.5

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Prediction

West Virginia has had a feel-good November, with the Mountaineers covering every game so far this month. They’re 2-1 outright. 

That run should end on Saturday against Texas Tech, which is an FBS-leading 10-1 ATS this season. Except for the Arizona State game, the Red Raiders have won and covered every game this year, and they’re looking ahead to conference titles and playoff bids. 

I’m expecting a beatdown roughly in line with how these two closed out the 2024 regular season. Texas Tech won 52-15. 

Prediction: Texas Tech -23.5

Ohio State vs. Michigan Prediction

There’s a lot of handwaving going on with this game. Michigan has won a few in a row, and it’s a rivalry! The game is in Ann Arbor. Something, something, something, and the game will be close.

I’m not buying it. Ohio State has mostly annihilated its opponents this season, and Michigan’s defense is going to be pushing the ball uphill all day against this defense. With the number now coming down below 10, it’s just not enough of a deterrent for me to avoid getting involved anymore.

I think this might even qualify as a contrarian favorite. I’m interested to see what the ticket splits look like on Saturday. 

Prediction: Ohio State -9.5

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

Nothing to see here. Just continuing to take the points with an improved Oklahoma State team, every week, as I have for the last month. 

Prediction: Oklahoma State +14

Duke vs. Wake Forest Prediction

Wake Forest has won six of its last seven games, including impressive wins against both UVA and SMU – the two most likely conference champions at this point. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the Demon Deacons are playing like the best team in the conference right now. 

With Duke struggling down the stretch and injuries piling up, I like the Wake moneyline.

Prediction: Wake Forest +100

Commonwealth Cup Prediction: UVA vs. Virginia Tech

Maybe it’s because I’m a Virginia resident, but I just can’t look at this number and not like Tech. The Hokies have owned this series for virtually my entire Virginia residency. 

I moved here in 2000. The Cavaliers have won twice since then. One of those times was when I was in seventh grade. I am now married with children.

It’s always possible that Virginia dunks VPI’s head in the toilet here, taking out years of frustration and punching a ticket to the ACC championship game. 

What seems more likely is that a trollish and disappointing Virginia Tech team summons its best performance of the year against those nerds in Charlottesville, making UVA earn it in a competitive game. I’ll take the points.

Prediction: Virginia Tech +10.5

Iron Bowl Prediction: Alabama vs. Auburn

Auburn plus the points is an automatic bet for me whenever the Iron Bowl is away from Tuscaloosa. This year, it could be an even stronger bet than usual, given the way Ty Simpson’s quarterback play seems to have regressed over the last five weeks. 

I’d consider both the points and the moneyline.

Prediction: Auburn +6; Auburn +185

College Football Best Bets: Week 14

• Ole Miss/Mississippi State Under 62.5
• Navy/Memphis Over 58.5
• Texas Tech -24.5
• Ohio State -9.5
• Oklahoma State +14
• Wake Forest +100
• Virginia Tech +10.5
• Auburn +6