College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Conference Championship Week

Welcome to the 2025 edition of college football’s conference championship week. These nine games will be some of the last games you can bet on until next season.

It’s this weekend, the 11 playoff games, Army vs. Navy, and a slew of random bowl games that will be filled with opt-outs and questionable weather. That’s all that’s left.

My usual conference championship advice applies here. In a normal week of college football, the average bettor might pick six or seven games, sifting through all the college football lines and picking the top 5% of preferred games.

Here, there are only nine games to begin with, so it’s easy to overextend and bet too much of the board. Smart bettors will keep their card short and pick their spots.

Because of that, I’m writing this week’s predictions column a little differently. I’ll write about all nine games, then give a verdict on whether or not I think there’s a betting angle I like. This is a week where layout out can be a good thing, so be prepared to see some passes.

Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Prediction

In terms of matchup advantages, Jacksonville State’s ground game should win this one easily. JSU ranks No. 18 nationally in EPA/rush, and Kennesaw State has a weak front that ranks below 100th in the corresponding defensive category.

But personally, I got scared off this game after reviewing the first game between these two teams, which was about three weeks ago. Jacksonville State won 35-26, but Kennesaw was -4 in turnover and committed 10 penalties for 90 yards. 

With a box score like that, Kennesaw should have lost by at least 20. The fact that Kennesaw was one fourth-quarter stop away from potentially coming back and winning is enough to make me look elsewhere. 

Grade: Pass; Lean Jacksonville State +120, Under 59.5

James Madison vs. Troy Prediction

JMU is dealing with coaching drama with the leaked rumors that head coach Bob Chesney appears to be on his way out of Harrisonburg to UCLA. Perhaps some players will follow him, as happened with former head coach Curt Cignetti in 2023. A couple of high school recruits have already uncommitted and been scooped up by new Virginia Tech coach James Franklin.

Is there a focus problem at JMU this week? Probably not, but a 23.5-point spread is an awfully big number to lay in a championship game, even when everyone is locked in.

With the winds of change blowing at JMU once again, and Troy coming up to play its coldest game of the year – by far! – I just want to forget about the spread and play the under. 

An under in this game could get annihilated if JMU has another 50-point drubbing of a Sun Belt team. But I like the idea that JMU’s offense is a little off while the defense wins the day. It’s also a weeknight under, too, which is never a bad play to have. 

Prediction: Under 47.5

North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction

Tulane has looked average for most of November, and North Texas clearly has the better offense. There’s a reason North Texas is favored here as the road team.

There’s also this to consider. North Texas slid into the CFP rankings on Tuesday night, but when this game was initially priced on Sunday, this was a UNT team that was unranked by the committee, traveling as a road unranked favorite to play previously ranked Tulane. 

That’s not quite the unranked favorite stat that I love to bring up as a betting angle, but it’s pretty close. 

Prediction: North Texas -2.5

UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction

I had Boise State on my card back in October when they were a short home favorite against undefeated UNLV. 

This game is a rematch in the sense that it’s Boise once again hosting UNLV. But with the added pressure of the undefeated season no longer relevant, I think we’ll see a much more competitive overall performance from the Rebels. 

This doesn’t rise to the level of a play for me, but my lean is to take the points. If you do like that side, then make sure you wait and get the best of the number, since the market is currently moving toward the Broncos. 

Grade: Pass; Lean UNLV +3.5

BYU vs. Texas Tech Prediction

Texas Tech crushed BYU in their first game this season, and so many bettors will be keen to line up and lay the points again with Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders seem like they’re on a mission right now, so that might not be the worst idea. But I’d actually prefer to rely on Texas Tech’s championship defense to pace this game, which means betting the under at a nice number like 49.5. 

Prediction: Under 49.5

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan

This is another rematch of a regular-season game, and a few things stood out to me.

The first is the total (43.5), which is right above the points that were scored in the first game (43). With the first score trending low, and this being the MAC championship, an under seemed obvious.

But the longer I looked at this game, the more I actually preferred the over. The first game they played had virtually no turnovers and not many explosive plays. Multiple drives sucked up minutes and ended with no points after a failed fourth-down conversion. And they still got to 43 points. 

This won’t be a play for me, but I actually like the case for positive regression here. It’s unusual to play a 60-minute game where so few chaotic things happen. Especially in the MAC, of all places!

Grade: Pass; Lean Over 43.5

Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction

In my Georgia vs. Alabama odds preview from early this week, I noted Alabama’s success against Georgia as an outright dog. This week will be another chance for the Crimson Tide to extend their mastery over Kirby Smart.

Maybe this is foolish, but I just can’t get past how poorly Ty Simpson has played over the last several weeks. With his play trending down, and the stakes going up, I feel like I have to like Georgia at the buy point under -3. 

Prediction: Georgia -2.5

Ohio State vs. Indiana Prediction

The Heisman Trophy narrative around this game might suggest that Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza are going to try to outgun each other. But I think it’s going to be the complete opposite – a war of defensive players and schemes filled with field goals and underwhelming offense. 

I love the under in this game. It might be my favorite play of the week. As for a side, I’m just not quite ready to pick against Ohio State. As this line has moved toward the Hoosiers, I’ve gotten more confident in the idea of just laying it with the champs. 

Prediction: Ohio State -4.5; Under 48.5

Virginia vs. Duke Prediction

UVA played in Durham a couple of weeks ago and smacked the Blue Devils pretty good. Frankly, I’m not sure why this number is so small. 

I would very clearly like Virginia all the way down to -6, and even then, I would still be thinking hard about laying it with the better, more consistent team. 

Prediction: Virginia -3.5

Best College Football Bets for Conference Championship Week

• JMU/Troy Under 47.5
• North Texas -2.5
• BYU/Texas Tech Under 49.5
• Georgia -2.5
• Ohio State -4.5
• Ohio State/Indiana Under 48.5
• Virginia -3.5