Ball St vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 12:27 PM

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Toledo head coach Jason Candle is doused after the Mid-American Conference championship NCAA college football game against Ohio, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Toledo is a -27.5 point favorite vs. Ball St
Ball State vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Ball State (4-6) visit Glass Bowl to take on Toledo (6-4) on Nov. 22 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EST.

Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-110).

The Ball State vs. Toledo Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Ball State vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ball State	+27.5 -110	47.5 -105	1600
Toledo	-27.5 -110	47.5 -115	-10000

Ball State vs Toledo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 75.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball St and Toledo, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ball State vs Toledo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ball State Best Bets Today

Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 41% ROI)
Ball State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Ball State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)

Toledo Best Bets Today

Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Toledo have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)

Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ball St is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.65 Units / 15.07% ROI).

Ball State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 26.63% ROI
Ball State is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Ball State is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo iss 7-3 against the spread this college football season (+3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI).

Toledo is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -9.48% ROI
Toledo is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Toledo is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Ball State have been sacked on 16% of pass attempts (36/222) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 6%

Ball State have been sacked on 16% of pass attempts (36/222) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 6%

Ball State’s QBs has thrown for 1,217 passing yards in 10 games (just 121.7 YPG) this season — 4th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 143.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State

Toledo has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 15 of 349 carries (4%) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (127 completions/266 attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 62%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 11% (1 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 65%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (127 completions/266 attempts) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Toledo has allowed opponents to catch just 3 of 12 passes (25% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Toledo