- Purdue is a -18.5 point favorite vs. Ball St
- Ball State vs. Purdue Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: BTN
The Ball State (0-0) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on the Purdue (0-0) on Aug. 30 in West Lafayette, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Purdue is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-105).
The Ball State vs. Purdue Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Ball State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | +18.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +650 |
| Purdue | -18.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -1000 |
Ball State vs Purdue Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Purdue will win this game with 80.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball St and Purdue, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ball State vs Purdue Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 60.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ball State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)
Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue
Ball State was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2024 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .443
Ball State was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays in the 2024 season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .392
Ball State is 3-11 (.214) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .425
Ball State is 3-14 (.176) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .384
Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Purdue was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .577
Purdue was winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .464
Purdue is 4-16 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .520
Purdue was winless (0-9) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .415
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Purdue
Purdue’s TEs gained 801 yards on 65 receptions (12.3 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Ball State’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Purdue’s TEs gained 801 yards on 65 receptions (12.3 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Ball State’s defense allowed 15.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs last season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Purdue’s QBs threw for 2,199 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.2 YPG) last season — 22nd-worst among FBS teams. Ball State’s defense allowed 279.6 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Ball State’s RBs averaged 9.7 yards after the catch last season — 27th-best among FBS RBs. Purdue’s defense allowed 13.8 RAC last season — 2nd-worst among P5 defenses.
Ball State’s WRs had just 136.6 receiving yards per game last season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense allowed 251.6 receiving yards per game last season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. Purdue’s defense allowed 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State’s RBs averaged 9.7 yards after the catch last season — 27th-best among FBS RBs. Purdue’s defense allowed 13.8 RAC last season — 2nd-worst among P5 defenses.
Ball State TEs averaged 8.4 receptions per game (101/12) in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Ball State QBs averaged just -7.3 Yards per Carry (-51 yards/7 carries) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 2.9
Ball State TEs were targeted 6.6 times per game (79/12) in the 1st half in the 2024 season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.9
Ball State’s WRs had just 136.6 receiving yards per game last season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense allowed 251.6 receiving yards per game last season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends
Purdue’s TEs gained 801 yards on 65 receptions (12.3 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Ball State’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Purdue’s TEs gained 801 yards on 65 receptions (12.3 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Ball State’s defense allowed 15.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs last season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Purdue’s QBs threw for 2,199 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.2 YPG) last season — 22nd-worst among FBS teams. Ball State’s defense allowed 279.6 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Purdue’s offense threw for 2,207 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.9 YPG) last season — 23rd-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense allowed 279.6 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Purdue’s TEs gained 801 yards on 65 receptions (12.3 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Ball State’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (41 completions/101 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Ball State allowed 13 TDs in close and late situations in the 2024 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes in the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 86 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.5
Ball State has no interceptions (86 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.8
Purdue Defensive Stats & Trends
Purdue has allowed 14.2 yards per completion (5,930 yards/419 completions) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 11.0
Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) in the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.5
Purdue allowed passes of 20+ yards on 44 of 331 attempts (13%) in the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 9%
Purdue intercepted 4 of 331 attempts (82.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 35.8
Purdue intercepted 4 of 331 attempts (82.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
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