- Connecticut is a -21 point favorite vs. Ball St
- Ball State vs. Connecticut Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
Ball State (1-2) visit Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field to take on Connecticut (1-2) on Sep. 20 in East Hartford, CT. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Connecticut is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -21 (-115).
The Ball State vs. Connecticut Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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Ball State vs. Connecticut Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | +21 -105 | 53.5 -110 | 1000 |
| Connecticut | -21 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -2000 |
Ball State vs Connecticut Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UConn will win this game with 85.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball St and Connecticut, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ball State vs Connecticut Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ball State Best Bets Today
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Connecticut Best Bets Today
- UConn has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- Connecticut has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- UConn have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Connecticut have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- UConn has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball St is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Ball State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Ball State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Ball State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Connecticut Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Connecticut iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Connecticut is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Connecticut is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Connecticut is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Connecticut
Ball State was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .442
Ball State was 3-6 (.333) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .536
Ball State was 1-4 (.200) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 12th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424
Ball State was 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 18th-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Connecticut: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
UConn was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552
UConn was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526
UConn was 7-2 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– 31st-best in FBS; Average: .604
UConn was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .575
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Connecticut
UConn’s offense has thrown for 1,008 passing yards in 3 games (336.0 YPG) this season — 12th-best among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 290.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn’s QBs has thrown for 993 passing yards in 3 games (331.0 YPG) this season — 13th-best among FBS teams. Ball State’s defense has allowed 290.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn’s WRs have 237.3 receiving yards per game this season — 23rd-best among FBS WRs. Ball State’s defense has allowed 233.0 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s offense has thrown for 263 passing yards in 3 games (just 87.7 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. UConn’s defense has allowed 270.3 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s QBs has thrown for 263 passing yards in 3 games (just 87.7 YPG) this season — 4th-worst among FBS teams. UConn’s defense has allowed 270.3 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs has 142 receptions in 15 games (just 9.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 25th-worst among FBS WRs. UConn’s defense has allowed 21.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State’s offense has thrown for 263 passing yards in 3 games (just 87.7 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. UConn’s defense has allowed 270.3 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State TEs were targeted 11.7 times per game (140/12) last season– 3rd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Ball State’s QBs has thrown for 263 passing yards in 3 games (just 87.7 YPG) this season — 4th-worst among FBS teams. UConn’s defense has allowed 270.3 passing yards per game this season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State have been sacked on 23% of pass attempts (11/47) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 6%
Connecticut Offensive Stats & Trends
UConn’s offense has thrown for 1,008 passing yards in 3 games (336.0 YPG) this season — 12th-best among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 290.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
UConn TEs were targeted 4 times in short yardage situations last week– most among FBS Teams
UConn TEs picked up first downs on 6 receptions last week– T-most among FBS Teams
UConn RBs have averaged 12.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (207 yards / 16 touches) on 3rd down this season– 6th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.1
UConn RBs have averaged 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (403 yards / 42 touches) in the 1st half this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State has no interceptions and 6 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State has no interceptions and 6 TD passes allowed this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.6
Ball State has no interceptions (107 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5
Connecticut Defensive Stats & Trends
UConn opponents has averaged 7.4 Passing Attempts per TD (59 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
UConn allowed 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (210 yards / 86 touches) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
UConn tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 64 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
UConn tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 64 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
UConn allowed first downs on 8% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
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