Army vs. Navy: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

With the regular season now over, and College Football Playoff games still a week away, that can only mean one thing.

It’s time for the Army-Navy game. 

Army and Navy will meet on the football field for the 126th time on Saturday. Navy won last year’s game, 31-13, and leads the overall series 63-55-7. 

Here’s how I’m looking at the game from a betting perspective. 

Army vs. Navy Odds

• Point Spread: Navy -6.5
• Moneyline: Navy -235  |  Army +195
• Over/Under: 38.5

Army vs. Navy Preview

Over the course of this season, the Middies have clearly been the superior team, and so they’re an understandable favorite in this game. Navy owns 2025 wins over both South Florida and Memphis, both of whom are top-40 teams by SP+ and top-30 teams by adjusted EPA/play. 

The multidimensionality Navy quarterback Blake Horvath brings to the Middies is a major reason they rank in the top 10 in both EPA/rush and EPA/pass. Army’s defense will yield yards and points here – especially in the passing game. Navy may even opt to throw the ball more than usual simply because they have such a big advantage there.

That’s the case for laying the points with Navy. They’re clearly the better team, and you can get them at less than a touchdown in a game that may not feature too many field goals. 

But classically, the Army vs. Navy game is a rugged contest between two option teams that can be a little unpredictable. Even though I know Navy is the better team, I’d probably rather have Army moneyline at cost, simply because of the unpredictability of the game. The underdog in this series is 10-4 ATS since 2011.

As for my favorite angle on the game, it’s going to involve the total. Even casual college football fans have heard stats about betting the under when it comes to service academies, and indeed, the under in the Army/Navy game is 17-2 since 2006. 

An important caveat, though: the two overs came in 2022 and 2024. So yes, the under is 17-2 since 2006, but it’s also 1-2 over the last three years.

The reason to believe the short-term over skew may continue is that both team offenses are quite ahead of their defenses this year. Army plays decent run defense but barely rates inside the top 100 in EPA/pass allowed. Navy’s passing defense is one of the 10 worst units in college football by the same EPA metric.

Army vs. Navy Prediction

I’m predicting a contrarian over in this game. 

While many bettors may blindly play the service academy under trend, the analytics and recent head-to-head trends point toward a game in the mid-40s, not mid-30s. 

Army vs. Navy Pick: Over 38.5; Lean Army +195