Arkansas vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 13

FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisianโ€™s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)
(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
  • Texas is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas
  • Arkansas vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

Arkansas (2-8) visit Darrell K Royalโ€“Texas Memorial Stadium to take on Texas (7-3) on Nov. 22 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Arkansas vs. Texas Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Arkansas vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arkansas+9.5 -11057.5 -115260
Texas -9.5 -11057.5 -105-325

Arkansas vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 76.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arkansas vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas will cover the spread with 57.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.50 Units / 7% ROI)

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • Arkansas is 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -33.11% ROI
  • Arkansas is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Arkansas is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas iss 2-8 against the spread this college football season (-6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI).

  • Texas is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.34% ROI
  • Texas is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Texas is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas RBs caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 7.6 receptions per game (76/10) in the 2nd half this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 5.8

Texas RBs were targeted 16 times in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs had 13 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas allowed 4 TD passes last week– most in the SEC

Matchup Notes for Arkansas vs. Texas

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas allowed 4 TD passes last week– most in the SEC

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas RBs caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 7.6 receptions per game (76/10) in the 2nd half this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 5.8

Texas RBs were targeted 16 times in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs had 13 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas RBs caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 7.6 receptions per game (76/10) in the 2nd half this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 5.8

Texas RBs were targeted 16 times in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs had 13 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas allowed 4 TD passes last week– most in the SEC

Arkansas Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas RBs caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 7.6 receptions per game (76/10) in the 2nd half this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 5.8

Texas RBs were targeted 16 times in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs had 13 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas allowed 4 TD passes last week– most in the SEC


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