- Arkansas is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Arkansas State vs. Arkansas Total (Over/Under): 62.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Arkansas State (1-0) visit War Memorial Stadium (AR) to take on Arkansas (1-0) on Sep. 6 in Little Rock, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EDT.
Arkansas is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-115).
The Arkansas State vs. Arkansas Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +23.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | +1200 |
| Arkansas | -23.5 -115 | 62.5 -110 | -3000 |
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Arkansas will win this game with 85.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Arkansas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 74.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Arkansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+2.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Arkansas have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 17.24% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Arkansas State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas iss 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Arkansas is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Arkansas is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Arkansas is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas
Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .616
Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2024 season– 37th-best in FBS; Average: .431
Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .633
Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– 16th-best in FBS; Average: .602
Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Arkansas was winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460
Arkansas was 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450
Arkansas was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards in the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Arkansas was 4-1 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .670
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Arkansas
Taylen Green (ARK) has completed 77.4% of passes (24/31) this season — 5th-best of Qualified SEC Quarterbacks. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed a completion rate of 72.2% this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Taylen Green (ARK) has averaged 10.4 YPA on 31 pass attempts this season — 9th-best of Qualified Power 5 Quarterbacks. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 7.6 YPA this season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Taylen Green (ARK) has averaged 10.4 YPA on 31 pass attempts this season — 5th-best of Qualified SEC Quarterbacks. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 7.6 YPA this season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 32 attempts this season — T-24th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 3.4% of attempts this season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Jaylen Raynor (ARST) has completed 81.2% of passes (26/32) this season — 5th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. Arkansas’s defense has allowed a completion rate of just 51.7% this season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 32 attempts this season — T-24th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 3.4% of attempts this season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Arkansas State Skill Players have averaged 26.0 receptions per game (26/1) this season– T-20th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.3
Arkansas State RBs have carried the ball 11 times in close and late situations this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State TEs averaged just 7.0 yards per reception (302 yards/43 catches) in the 2024 season– 5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
Arkansas State Skill Players have averaged 21.4 receptions per game (299/14) since the 2024 season– 35th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 18.8
Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas WRs have averaged 25.5 yards per reception (662 yards/26 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
Arkansas WRs averaged 25.8 yards per reception (620 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
Arkansas WRs have caught 5 touchdown passes this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas WRs averaged a touchdown every 22.6 receptions (181 Rec/8 TDs) in the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 10.5
Arkansas WRs averaged 25.8 yards per reception (620 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6
Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 24 carries (38%) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State allowed first downs on 44% of rush attempts in close and late situations in the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 22%
Arkansas State tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 66 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Arkansas Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas had no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 5.8
Arkansas has no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 6.1
Arkansas allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 36 of 463 carries (8%) in the 2024 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 13%
Arkansas tackled opponents for a loss on just 64 of 463 rushing attempts (14% TFL%) in the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Arkansas do not has an interception in 1 games this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 0.56
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