- Baylor is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Arizona St
- Arizona State vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: FOX
Arizona State (2-1) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (2-1) on Sep. 20 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Arizona State vs. Baylor Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Arizona State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arizona State | +2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | 105 |
| Baylor | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -125 |
Arizona State vs Baylor Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 60.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arizona St and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arizona State vs Baylor Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arizona State Best Bets Today
- Arizona State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Arizona State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Baylor Best Bets Today
- Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- Baylor have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
Arizona State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arizona St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Arizona State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -10.71% ROI
- Arizona State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Arizona State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Baylor iss 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).
- Baylor is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 9.52% ROI
- Baylor is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Baylor is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Arizona State: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor
Arizona State was 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468
Arizona State was 10-1 (.909) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .628
Arizona State is 8-1 (.889) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .665
Arizona State was 7-1 (.875) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona State
Baylor was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .576
Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Baylor was 7-4 (.636) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .442
Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Matchup Notes for Arizona State vs. Baylor
Baylor has 341 receptions in 16 games (21.3 per game) since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS skill players. Arizona State’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor’s WRs has 234 receptions in 16 games (14.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor’s WRs has 234 receptions in 16 games (14.6 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed 20.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 468 attempts since the 2024 season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.7% of attempts since the 2024 season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s TEs has 9 receptions in 3 games (just 3.0 per game) this season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 13.3 receptions per game this season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s WRs has gained 2,360 yards on 163 receptions (14.5 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-26th-best among FBS WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 14.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arizona State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 468 attempts since the 2024 season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.7% of attempts since the 2024 season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arizona State RBs had 11 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arizona State Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 7.5 receptions (15 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 2.0
Arizona State’s TEs has 9 receptions in 3 games (just 3.0 per game) this season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 13.3 receptions per game this season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s WRs has gained 2,360 yards on 163 receptions (14.5 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-26th-best among FBS WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 14.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends
Baylor WRs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams
Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 46.3 times per game (139/3) this season– highest among Big 12 Teams; Average: 28.8
Baylor WRs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Baylor Skill Players have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
Baylor WRs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Arizona State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.5
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.7
Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.9
Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7
Arizona State’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 18% of PATs since the 2024 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 9%
Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends
Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 72 of 620 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.
Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2
Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 129 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 62 of 491 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.
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