Alabama vs. Vanderbilt: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

Alabama took a hit to its perception after its Week 1 loss to Florida State. The reaction included, among other things, some legendary meltdowns on Paul Finebaum’s show. 

But Alabama roared back into the CFP conversation with a road win at Georgia last week, setting up a surprisingly big home game against Vanderbilt. 

Once again, Tuscaloosa will be featured on the College GameDay schedule. But for those looking for less media and more Alabama football odds analysis, I’ve got you covered.

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Odds

• Point Spread: Alabama -10.5
• Moneyline: Alabama -450  |  Vanderbilt +350
• Over/Under: 56.5

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Preview

The starting point for handicapping this game is the offenses. The analytics from a month of play so far suggest both Vanderbilt and Alabama will be able to move the football and score points on Saturday.

Alabama’s rush defense is surprisingly average this year, ranking outside the top 60 in EPA/rush allowed. Vanderbilt’s offense ranks sixth in EPA/rush, so expect the Commodores’ offensive line to create a lot of manageable third downs. 

When Alabama is on offense, its passing game with Ty Simpson should thrive. Alabama ranks 10th in EPA/pass, and Vanderbilt’s defense for EPA/pass allowed ranks outside the top 80 in FBS.

Zooming out to review results from the first third of the season, Vanderbilt has surprised as an undefeated team entering October. But with the benefit of hindsight, bettors can actually cast a fair amount of skepticism on the results they’ve gotten so far. 

Here are their results through Week 5:

• 45-3 Win vs. FCS Charleston Southern
• 44-20 win at Virginia Tech
• 31-7 win at South Carolina
• 70-21 win vs. Georgia State
• 55-35 win vs. Utah State

Of the two wins Vanderbilt has against schools from power conferences, one came against a bad ACC team that’s already fired its coach. The other came against South Carolina after a head-to-head hit knocked out South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers in the second quarter. 

Vanderbilt linebacker Langston Patterson was ejected for targeting, and the Gamecocks have won one game (against last-place Kentucky) since. 

Alabama’s road win at Georgia appears to be the best piece of current evidence that either team is good, which explains the healthy point spread in favor of the Crimson Tide. 

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Prediction

I am predicting Over 56.5 for Saturday’s game between Alabama and Vanderbilt.

Because of Vanderbilt’s sketchy record so far, and Alabama’s advantage in the passing game, I’m more comfortable with the Alabama side of this game than the Vanderbilt side. 

However, in my opinion, the best betting option remains the over, as I believe both offenses can outplay the opposing defenses. 

Prediction: Over 56.5