Alabama vs Georgia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 5

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart watches a play during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game against Alabama in Atlanta, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
(AP Photo/John Bazemore)
  • Georgia is a -3 point favorite vs. Alabama
  • Alabama vs. Georgia Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

Alabama (2-1) visit Sanford Stadium to take on Georgia (3-0) on Sep. 27 in Athens, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Georgia is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Alabama vs. Georgia Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Alabama vs. Georgia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Alabama+3 -11052.5 -115130
Georgia -3 -11052.5 -105-155

Alabama vs Georgia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 76.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Alabama and Georgia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Alabama vs Georgia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 76.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alabama have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Georgia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+0.90 Units / 9% ROI)

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Alabama is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -29.03% ROI
  • Alabama is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Alabama is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia iss 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Georgia is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 60.61% ROI
  • Georgia is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Georgia is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

Alabama’s WRs has gained 800 yards on 50 receptions (16.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Georgia’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama WRs have averaged 25.4 yards per reception (458 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Alabama’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 105 attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia’s WRs has averaged just 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Georgia RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Matchup Notes for Alabama vs. Georgia

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia’s WRs has averaged just 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Georgia RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has gained 800 yards on 50 receptions (16.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Georgia’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama WRs have averaged 25.4 yards per reception (458 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Alabama’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 105 attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

Alabama’s WRs has gained 800 yards on 50 receptions (16.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Georgia’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama WRs have averaged 25.4 yards per reception (458 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Alabama’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 105 attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia’s WRs has averaged just 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Georgia RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Alabama Defensive Stats & Trends

Alabama’s WRs has gained 800 yards on 50 receptions (16.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Georgia’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama WRs have averaged 25.4 yards per reception (458 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Alabama’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 105 attempts this season — T-22nd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Georgia Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia’s WRs has averaged just 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Georgia RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia’s WRs has 246 receptions in 17 games (14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Georgia has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.


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