- Alabama is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Florida St
- Alabama vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
The Alabama (0-0) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State (0-0) on Aug. 30 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).
The Alabama vs. Florida State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Alabama vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Alabama | -13.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -600 |
| Florida State | +13.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +425 |
Alabama vs Florida State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 76.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Alabama and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Alabama vs Florida State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 63.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Alabama Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alabama have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Florida State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Florida State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida St was 9-4 against the spread last college football season (+4.6 Units / 32.17% ROI).
- Florida State is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 24.67% ROI
- Florida State is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
- Florida State is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
Alabama is 9-2 (.818) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .503
Alabama was 9-2 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2024 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .625
Alabama was 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .633
Alabama is 20-2 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .748
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama
Florida State was 2-7 (.222) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .577
Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .417
Florida State was 1-9 (.100) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489
Florida State was 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Matchup Notes for Alabama vs. Florida State
Florida State’s offense threw for 2,164 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.3 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Florida State’s offense threw for 2,164 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.3 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game last season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s QBs threw for 2,164 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.3 YPG) last season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Alabama’s defense allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Alabama had 17 receiving touchdowns last season — 5th-fewest among SEC skill players. Florida State’s defense allowed 16 receiving touchdowns last season — 2nd-fewest among ACC defenses.
Alabama’s offense had 30 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — 5th-most among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-most among ACC defenses.
Alabama’s offense had 41 rushing touchdowns last season — 5th-most among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense allowed 21 rushing TDs last season — T-2nd-most among ACC defenses.
Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends
Alabama WRs have averaged 28.1 yards per reception (842 yards/30 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6
Alabama Skill Players have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (1,122 yards/52 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Alabama Skill Players have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (1,122 yards/52 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1
Alabama QBs have 28 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State’s offense threw for 2,164 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.3 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Florida State’s offense threw for 2,164 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.3 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game last season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s QBs threw for 2,164 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.3 YPG) last season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Alabama’s defense allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Florida State’s RBs averaged 9.3 yards after the catch last season — 35th-best among FBS RBs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 10.0 RAC last season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.
Florida State’s RBs averaged 9.3 yards after the catch last season — 35th-best among FBS RBs. Alabama’s defense allowed just 6.0 RAC to RBs last season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Alabama Defensive Stats & Trends
Alabama allowed just 10.2 yards per completion (2,294 yards/225 completions) in the 2024 season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 11.7
Alabama tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 34 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– 25th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
Alabama allowed 10 rushing TDs on 436 carries (43.6 Carries Per TD) in the 2024 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 23.1
Alabama has allowed just 10.6 yards per completion (4,969 yards/470 completions) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 11.7
Alabama’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs in the 2024 season– 3rd-highest in FBS; Average: 8%
Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) in the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 55% (405 completions/739 attempts) since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
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