- Air Force is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Utah St
- Air Force vs. Utah State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
Air Force (1-0) visit Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium to take on Utah State (1-1) on Sep. 13 in Logan, UT. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT.
Air Force is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).
The Air Force vs. Utah State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Air Force vs. Utah State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Air Force | -4.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -200 |
| Utah State | +4.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | 165 |
Air Force vs Utah State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 60.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and Utah St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Air Force vs Utah State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Utah State will cover the spread with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Air Force Best Bets Today
- Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 85% ROI)
- Air Force have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Utah State Best Bets Today
- Utah State has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Utah State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Utah State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Utah State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Utah State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Air Force is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Air Force is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Air Force is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Air Force is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Utah St iss 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Utah State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 50% ROI
- Utah State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Utah State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Utah State
Air Force was 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Air Force was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Air Force was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Air Force was 1-6 (.143) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force
Utah State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536
Utah State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477
Utah State is winless (0-7) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .555
Utah State was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Utah State
Utah State has 326 receptions in 14 games (23.3 per game) since the 2024 season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
Utah State’s RBs has averaged just 5.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 6.1 RAC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Utah State’s offense has thrown for 3,634 passing yards in 14 games (259.6 YPG) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 188.2 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 33.3% of 9 attempts this season — best among FBS offenses. Utah State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.7% of attempts this season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s WRs has 58 receptions in 13 games (just 4.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 22.3 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s WRs has 58 receptions in 13 games (just 4.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 22.3 receptions per game since the 2024 season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends
Air Force Skill Players have averaged 26.5 yards per reception (159 yards/6 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Air Force Skill Players averaged 17.2 yards per reception (1,048 yards/61 catches) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Air Force Skill Players averaged just 5.1 receptions per game (61/12) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.8
Air Force TEs averaged 23.8 yards per reception (95 yards/4 catches) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
Air Force WRs have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (1,065 yards/58 catches) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3
Utah State Offensive Stats & Trends
Utah State RBs averaged 7.6 Yards per Carry (537 yards/71 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Utah State has 326 receptions in 14 games (23.3 per game) since the 2024 season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
Utah State TEs were targeted 47 times in the 1st quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Utah State TEs were targeted 11.9 times per game (143/12) last season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Utah State TEs were targeted 25 times in short yardage situations last season– most among FBS Teams
Air Force Defensive Stats & Trends
Air Force has sacked opposing QBs on 25% of pass attempts (6/24) this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Air Force has averaged 6.0 sacks per game this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 2.1
Air Force has sacked opposing QBs on 25% of pass attempts (6/24) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Air Force has sacked opponents 6 times this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Air Force has averaged 6.0 sacks per game this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Utah State Defensive Stats & Trends
Utah State allowed 20 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS
Utah State had no interceptions and 19 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.4
Utah State allowed 19 TD passes in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS
Utah State has no interceptions (64 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 36.5
Utah State allowed 20 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
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