ACC Championship Scenarios: Every Remaining Possibility for ACC Football Winner

Seemingly every year, there’s at least one major college football conference that has a total mess at the top of its standings as the end of the regular season approaches. 

This year, that ignominious honor belongs to the ACC. With one week left to play in the regular season, there are still six teams alive to win the ACC football championship and – maybe – play in the College Football Playoff. 

SMU and Virginia have become the ACC title favorites simply because their path to the championship game is the simplest among the remaining contenders. If they win in Week 14, they’re in. 

SMU must win a tricky game at Cal; Virginia must beat archrival Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 22-2 against UVA since 2000, with Virginia wins coming in 2003 and 2019. 

SMU and UVA would each have the opportunity to make the championship game with a Week 14 loss, too, but it would require a cascade of unlikely results across the rest of the ACC. 

The team in the best position to reach the title game behind the Mustangs and Cavaliers is Pitt. The Panthers put themselves in a much better position after their Week 13 upset at Georgia Tech and can play for a title with a win against Miami and a loss from either UVA or SMU.

Miami can keep its long-shot hopes alive with a win in Pittsburgh, but it will still need some serious help. The most likely scenario involves a UVA loss to Virginia Tech, then a loss from either Duke or North Carolina. 

The fifth team that is still mathematically alive is Duke, which was left for dead after losing to UVA in Week 12, but can still play for an ACC title with a lot of help. Assuming Duke can beat Wake Forest at home on Senior Day, the Blue Devils will also need losses from Pitt, Virginia, and either SMU or NC State. 

Georgia Tech is the sixth and final team in this muddled picture. The Yellow Jackets haven’t closed the season strong, with losses to Pitt and NC State this month, but they can still technically make the ACC Championship Game with losses from SMU, UVA, and either Duke or Pitt. 

That’s not likely, but BetMGM’s Sunday futures price of 80-to-1 looks pretty nice for Georgia Tech, given the fundamentals!

ACC Championship Scenarios

ACC Football Tiebreakers (2025)

In the event there are three or more teams tied in the ACC standings, the following tiebreaker procedure is applied:

• 1) Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.
• 2) If all tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams. If all tied teams are not common opponents and no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, such team shall be eliminated and removed from the tie.
• 3) Win-percentage against all common opponents.
• 4) Win-percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.
• 5) Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
• 6) The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by Sport Source Analytics, following the conclusion of regular-season games.
• 7) The participant shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.

ACC Championship Odds