Falcons Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Falcons win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Falcons suffered a disappointing 2024 season. Despite signing a new quarterback who led a revamped offense, the Falcons lost six of their final eight to finish the season 8-9. 

After only one season of Kirk Cousins, Atlanta hands the keys to Michael Penix Jr., who started the final three games of the 2024 season. Year over year, Atlanta’s win total dropped two wins. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Atlanta’s 2025 win total and my Falcons win total prediction. 

Falcons Win Total Odds

The Falcons’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

Oddsmakers currently price the Falcons as more likely to surpass 7.5 wins. Currently, Atlanta is to capture eight or more wins.

Conversely, Raheem Morris’ team owns odds to finish with seven or fewer wins.

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 5.5 Wins

Falcons Win Total Prediction 2025

Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 Wins (-145)

Based on implied probability, the Falcons are predicted to have over 7.5 wins with 59.2% confidence.

Based on the potency of the Falcons offense in 2024 and the relatively easy schedule this year, I predict the Falcons will finish Over 7.5 Wins (-145). 

BET: Falcons Over 7.5 Wins @ +120

BET: Panthers Under 7.5 Wins @ -145  

Essentially, backing the Falcons to clear this market comes down to whether the offense repeats its 2024 success. 

Zac Robinson coordinated a unit that took a big step from 2023. Atlanta jumped 10 spots in total offensive DVOA and 17 spots in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Of slight concern is Drew Dahlman’s departure from the offensive line. However, Ryan Neuzil earned a healthy snap percentage last year and should slot in nicely. 

Arguably, only the Ravens, Bills, Eagles and maybe Packers possess a better offensive line-running back tandem. 

That’s a contributing factor as to why I’m high on Bijan Robinson to claim NFL Offensive Player of the Year. 

If the offense continues its success from last season, it will likely help offset potential defensive regression. 

Another concern for Atlanta is that they play a much harder schedule of opposing offenses this year. 

Last year, Atlanta finished 29th in defensive DVOA against the 24th-hardest set of offenses. Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Atlanta projects to face the 16th-hardest schedule. 

Yet, the team is also scheduled to face the league’s fourth-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals. 

Given those factors, I like the Falcons to repeat their record from 2024 and surpass this win total. 

Most Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for most regular-season wins is 14; they went 14-2 in 1998 en route to a loss in Super Bowl XXXIII.

They’re one of 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-12-1 in 1967, the team’s second year of existence.

They won only two games a year later in 1968.